First state election test for Germany's Merz

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces his first state election test in Baden-Wurttemberg this Sunday, as voters decide if his party can regain influence in the region while the Greens and AfD challenge the political balance.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will encounter his first state-level election evaluation since taking office in May last year, as voters prepare to cast their ballots in the southwestern state of Baden-Württemberg on Sunday. This vote provides an opportunity for Merz’s party to attempt a resurgence in a region where it has historically held considerable influence.

Upcoming State Elections in Germany

This year, Germany is scheduled to hold five state elections, with Baden-Württemberg being the first in line. The results are expected to shape the broader national political landscape and serve as an indicator of Chancellor Merz’s current political strength.

Baden-Württemberg Political Context

Baden-Württemberg is a longstanding center of Germany’s automotive industry and the headquarters of companies such as Mercedes-Benz. Traditionally a conservative region, the state has seen the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Merz’s party, operate as the junior partner in a coalition government led by the Greens for the past decade. Recent opinion polls suggest that the coalition could continue, though the contest between the CDU’s candidate, 37-year-old newcomer Manuel Hagel, and the experienced Green politician Cem Özdemir remains highly competitive.

Özdemir is positioned to succeed the current Green premier, Winfried Kretschmann. A recent poll conducted by broadcaster ZDF shows both candidates tied at 28% support, highlighting the uncertainty of the outcome. Should the Greens win, it could spark internal criticism of Merz, whose personal approval ratings have experienced a decline in recent months. Despite this, Özdemir is seen as a moderate figure, unlikely to create major obstacles for the federal government in the Bundesrat, Germany’s upper parliamentary chamber representing the states.

Far-Right AfD Continues to Influence Politics

Attention is also focused on the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which maintains roughly 20% support in opinion polls and continues to grow nationally. Chancellor Merz has firmly ruled out any collaboration with the AfD. The party’s influence in one of Germany’s wealthiest regions has been affected by ongoing challenges in the automotive sector.

Other Political Movements

The far-left Left Party may surpass the threshold required to enter the state parliament. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats have seen their support decline to single-digit levels according to recent surveys. Economic concerns, including rising fuel prices linked to the U.S.-led conflict with Iran, may influence voter sentiment indirectly, though local state issues are expected to remain the primary focus. Manfred Guellner, head of the polling organization Forsa, stated that voters in Baden-Württemberg are largely informed and aware that the election is primarily determined by state-level political considerations.

Election Timeline

Following the Baden-Württemberg vote, elections are scheduled in the neighboring state of Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22. Later in the year, ballots will be held in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in September, continuing the series of state-level electoral tests for Germany’s federal government.

Sources:

• Reuters
• BBC News
• Deutsche Welle
• Germany's Merz faces first state election test