Democrats aim for surprise victory in Tennessee, a stronghold for Maga

Riding momentum from recent off-year election victories, Democrats are aiming for a surprising win in a predominantly Republican congressional district in Tennessee. A victory here could significantly hinder Donald Trumps legislative plans.

Voters are heading to the polls Tuesday to select a replacement for Mark Green, a Republican who resigned from Congress in July. The district, designed by state GOP leaders to favor Republican candidates, supported both Trump and Green last year by a 22-point margin. Under normal circumstances, GOP nominee Matt Van Epps would be considered a clear favorite.

However, after Democratic wins in Virginia, New Jersey, and other states earlier this month, signaling potential shifts among voters who previously backed Trump, Democrats and allied groups are heavily investing in state representative Aftyn Behns campaign, hoping to engineer a significant upset.

We still expect the Republican to win, but a single-digit margin wouldnt be shocking, said Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report With Amy Walter. A recent Emerson College Polling and Hill survey shows Van Epps leading by only two points, 48% to 46%.

The district stretches from Kentucky to Alabama, including rural areas that traditionally challenge Democrats, as well as parts of blue-leaning Nashville and the swing city of Clarksville, which could prove decisive. Black voters, making up roughly 15% of the electorate, could be critical to a Behn victory, though turnout in this group can be unpredictable.

Its a solidly Republican district, said Kent Syler, political science professor at Middle Tennessee State University. Yet, he added, Republicans cant afford to be complacent, and Democrats are energized and testing their limits.

A Behn win would shrink the GOP majority in the House, potentially allowing Democrats to reclaim control before the next midterms if a few Republicans leave their seats. Republican disruptions were highlighted last week when Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned after a fallout with Trump.

Democratic-affiliated groups are contributing heavily. The House Majority PAC has spent $1 million on digital and TV ads. CJ Warnke, communications director, stated, No Republican seat is secure; HMP will do whatever it takes to win the House in 2026. Another PAC, Your Community, is running ads targeting Van Epps as a hedge fund puppet and linking him to attempts to block files related to Jeffrey Epstein. Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin and Vice President Kamala Harris have appeared at Behn events, though reportedly not together.

Trump has publicly endorsed Van Epps, with his main PAC, Maga Inc, and Club for Growth running supportive ads. Van Epps has labeled Behn, a former organizer for Indivisible, as a radical leftist, citing a past comment in which she expressed frustration about Nashville.

Even in defeat, a close race could benefit Democrats. A narrow Van Epps win in a heavily Trump-aligned district may encourage Democratic candidates and fundraising in other red areas, forcing Republicans to spend heavily in territories they assumed were safe.

A national Democratic strategist noted that Republicans are investing unusually large sums to prevent Democratic overperformance, suggesting that GOP policy positions may be unpopular even in Trump-leaning districts. Conversely, a Republican strategist argued that special election voters differ from midterm voters, making it hard to predict general election outcomes accurately.

Should Van Epps secure a comfortable win, the district could offer Republicans a morale boost and a pause to recent losses, Syler said, helping the party and the president stabilize after recent setbacks.

Author’s Analysis: Tennessee Special Election Could Signal Broader Shifts

The special election in Tennessee’s 7th congressional district illustrates how political momentum from off-year victories can reshape expectations even in traditionally safe districts. While GOP nominee Matt Van Epps remains the favorite, polls indicate a tightening race, with recent surveys showing him only two points ahead of Democrat Aftyn Behn. This narrowing margin reflects energized Democratic turnout and targeted campaign spending in key areas like Clarksville and parts of Nashville.

Democrats are strategically focusing on voter blocs that could tip the balance, including Black voters who make up roughly 15% of the electorate. Meanwhile, the Republicans are heavily investing to maintain control, signaling that even strongholds are now contested. The presence of high-profile endorsements from both sides, along with substantial PAC spending, underscores the national importance assigned to this race.

Even if Van Epps wins, a narrow margin could have consequences beyond the district. Democrats could interpret a close outcome as evidence of potential gains in other Republican-leaning areas, influencing strategy, fundraising, and candidate recruitment ahead of 2026. Conversely, a decisive Republican win would reinforce GOP confidence and provide momentum for Trump-aligned candidates. The outcome will therefore not only determine a replacement for Mark Green but also serve as an early indicator of party strength leading into the midterms.

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• Democrats hope for off-year House upset in Tennessee Maga stronghold