Honduras to vote for new president and Congress amid doubts about electoral candidates

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras Amanda Durn Garca, a 57-year-old vendor at the national university campus, supports herself and her 74-year-old mother by selling snacks, soft drinks, and gum for roughly $7 a day. Her four grown children have moved out, but life remains a daily struggle, and she doubts that the winner of Sundays presidential election will bring meaningful improvements.

During the past four years under outgoing President Xiomara Castro, homicide and unemployment rates have improved, and even the International Monetary Fund praised her administrations fiscal management. Yet, it remains uncertain whether voters will reward Castros chosen successor, Rixi Moncada, representing the democratic socialist Libre party, for this gradual progress.

From Durns perspective, the cost of living continues to rise, with inflation hovering between 4% and 5% over the last two years. One of her sons emigrated to the United States due to lack of work and now fears deportation. She expressed frustration with the political system: One administration leaves and another arrives, and the economic situation remains the same or worsens. Politicians only seek power for personal gain; citizens are the least important.

The Presidential Contenders

After 12 years under the conservative National Party and four years of the democratic socialist Libre, Hondurans have experienced both ends of the political spectrum but remain dissatisfied with basic necessities like jobs and security.

Rixi Moncada, 60, previously served as Castros finance and defense secretary before running for president. Polls suggest two other candidates also have a chance to win: Salvador Nasralla, 72, running for the Liberal Party on his fourth presidential bid, and former Tegucigalpa Mayor Nasry Tito Asfura, 67, representing the National Party. The candidates have largely avoided policy specifics, instead focusing on accusations of electoral manipulation.

Moncada promises to democratize the economy with progressive taxes and easier access to credit. Nasralla emphasizes anti-corruption efforts while presenting himself as an outsider despite past alliances with multiple parties. Asfura emphasizes infrastructure improvements from his eight years as mayor but has faced unproven accusations of embezzlement.

Concerns About Election Legitimacy

After reported irregularities in a preliminary election results test earlier this month, Moncada stated she would not recognize the results. Election observers have expressed concern over this rhetoric. The Organization of American States noted that frequent statements about fraud are creating uncertainty and destabilizing the electoral process. Ana Mara Mndez Dardn, director for Central America at the Washington Office on Latin America, commented that such claims erode trust in both political and electoral institutions.

Security and Violence Trends

Castro took office in January 2022, promising to shift domestic security from the military to the police. Initially, this appeared effective, but by the end of 2022, she declared a state of emergency to combat gang violence, temporarily suspending some constitutional rights. While Honduras recorded its lowest homicide rate in 30 years last year, violence has shifted from urban centers to rural areas.

Experts note that gang activity has adapted, becoming less visible while forced disappearances increased. Migdonia Ayestas of the National Violence Observatory criticized the state of emergency for causing civil rights violations, advocating instead for public security and justice policies. Leydi Coello, a resident of a dangerous Tegucigalpa neighborhood, expressed skepticism about candidates safety promises, citing repeated personal assaults.

U.S. Involvement and Reactions

The upcoming election has drawn attention from the U.S., with Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau expressing concern about threats to the National Electoral Council and signs of instability. Despite Castros leftist rhetoric, she maintained pragmatic ties with the U.S., hosting visits from officials such as Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

Jake Johnston of the Center for Economic and Policy Research highlighted Castros economic and social policy achievements, including cooperation with the U.S. on deportation and migration issues. However, former President Donald Trump has openly endorsed Asfura, labeling Moncada as linked to Fidel Castro and Nasralla as borderline Communist, emphasizing Asfura as the candidate aligned with U.S. interests.

Context and Analysis: The Road Ahead for Honduras

As Honduras approaches its presidential election, the political landscape remains highly polarized and uncertain. Amanda Durón García’s sentiments, echoed by many ordinary citizens, reflect the deep frustration with the country’s persistent economic challenges, despite claims of gradual improvements under the current administration. Over the last four years, while President Xiomara Castro’s government has overseen some progress—such as a decrease in the homicide rate and praised fiscal management—the rise in living costs and stagnation in job opportunities continue to affect the everyday lives of Hondurans.

The upcoming election, where Rixi Moncada, the chosen successor of Castro, faces off against candidates from both the Liberal and National parties, highlights the sharp political divide. Each contender presents a different vision for the country, yet all have largely avoided concrete policy discussions in favor of personal attacks and allegations of electoral fraud. This pattern, along with doubts over the legitimacy of the electoral process, only deepens the distrust among the electorate, as evidenced by Moncada’s recent statements threatening to not recognize the election results. Election observers have raised alarms, noting that such rhetoric could destabilize the process even further.

In terms of security, while the homicide rate has decreased under Castro, violence continues to be a pervasive issue. The shift of gang activity to rural areas and an increase in forced disappearances have raised concerns among citizens, particularly in neighborhoods plagued by violence. Experts argue that the state of emergency declared by the Castro administration only exacerbated civil rights violations and failed to provide sustainable solutions. The incoming government will likely inherit this difficult security situation, with voters skeptical of promises regarding safety.

The influence of external actors, such as the U.S., further complicates the election. U.S. officials have expressed concerns about instability and threats to the National Electoral Council, even as they continue to maintain pragmatic ties with Castro’s administration. Meanwhile, the political narrative in the U.S. has aligned with Asfura, with former President Trump endorsing him and positioning Moncada and Nasralla as too closely linked to leftist ideologies. This external influence is likely to shape not only the election results but also the post-election relationship between the two nations.

Ultimately, the future of Honduras rests on whether its next president can effectively address the economic, security, and political challenges that persist despite the rhetoric of change. As citizens like Durón García express their dissatisfaction with the political system, one thing is clear: tangible improvements in their daily lives will be the true test of the next administration’s success.

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• Hondurans to elect new president and Congress even as candidates fan electoral doubt