Trump's approval ratings decline due to worries about the economy

President Trumps approval has declined in recent weeks as he nears the conclusion of the first year of his second term. According to a Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average, his current approval rating is 42%, while his disapproval stands at 55%. This represents a drop from about a month ago, when the average had him at roughly 46% approval and 51% disapproval.

Despite Trumps recent claim on Truth Social that he achieved THE HIGHEST POLL NUMBERS OF MY POLITICAL CAREER, analysts suggest otherwise. Experts attribute the decline to voter frustration over high living costs and reactions to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids. Nine or ten months ago, voters largely believed the GOP and Trump were best equipped to manage the economy and immigration. Scott Tranter, DDHQs director of data science, noted that today voters are at best mixed, if not critical, of Trump and the GOP on these issues.

There is potential for numbers to recover. The recent shooting of two National Guard soldiers has renewed attention on U.S. immigration policies after the suspect, an Afghan national, arrived under a Biden-era resettlement program. Still, recent polls show concerning trends for Trump. A Fox News survey reported that only 38% of respondents approved of his economic management, including just 25% of independents. Tariffs and healthcare approval ratings were similarly low, at 35% and 34%, respectively. Border security was the exception, polling at 53%, with overall approval at 41%.

Other polls reinforce the decline. A Reuters/Ipsos survey this month found Trump at 38%, marking the lowest approval since the start of his second term. Meanwhile, a Marquette Law School poll showed him at 43%, steady from September but indicating slight losses among independents.

Trump scored higher on specific issues, such as the Israel-Hamas ceasefire (67%) and border security (54%), but received low marks for his handling of government shutdowns (25%), information regarding Jeffrey Epstein (26%), the economy (36%), tariffs (37%), and immigration (45%). Todd Belt, director of the political management program at George Washington University, emphasized that voters frustrations are largely tied to inflation and economic concerns.

Experts cite several reasons for declining economic approval, including the impact of tariffs on businesses and consumers. While some tariffs have been rolled back on items like beef, coffee, and bananas, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued that inflation is influenced more by the service sector than trade policies. Public perception remains that living costs are too high, despite the administration highlighting economic progress.

Trumps focus on international matters, including the Israel-Gaza conflict, Russias invasion of Ukraine, and U.S. military presence near Venezuela, has also influenced voter perception. Analysts note that the president has limited control over the economy, with interest rates and tariffs being significant factors beyond his direct influence.

Trump, however, continues to promote his economic achievements and tariff revenues on Truth Social, asserting that inflation is nearly nonexistent. White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson defended Trumps approval, claiming he maintains strong support among his party and highlighting his accomplishments on border security, inflation, healthcare, and worker reforms.

Inflation, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index, is at 3% since September. Immigration policies, particularly ICE raids, remain a contentious issue. Critics argue these actions may target Hispanic and Latino populations disproportionately, though ICE maintains its operations are not based on race or ethnicity. Polls indicate declining support among independents and Latino voters for Trumps immigration approach.

Experts observe that dips in approval ratings are common for presidents early in a term. Trumps current ratings, however, remain above those at the same point in his first term. Analysts describe Trump as having a low ceiling and high floor in public approval, with a loyal base that is unlikely to abandon him.

To improve poll numbers, experts suggest Trump could adjust tariff policies and refocus on economic issues that resonate with voters, emphasizing affordability and the agenda that drove his election victories.

Analysis: Trump’s Approval Decline and the Impact of Key Issues

President Trump's approval rating has seen a noticeable drop in recent weeks, reflecting growing voter dissatisfaction. As he approaches the end of his first year in a second term, his approval stands at 42%, down from 46% just a month ago. Despite his claim of achieving the "highest poll numbers" of his political career, analysts point to factors such as high living costs and concerns over U.S. immigration enforcement, which appear to be influencing public opinion.

The decline in Trump’s approval is linked to shifting voter attitudes, especially on issues he once dominated, such as the economy and immigration. While the GOP and Trump were seen as better equipped to handle these matters earlier in his term, voters are now more critical, with many expressing dissatisfaction over the handling of inflation and immigration raids. This shift is evident in recent polls, such as a Fox News survey, where only 38% of respondents approved of Trump's economic management. Independent voters, a crucial demographic, appear especially disillusioned, with approval dropping to just 25% on economic issues.

Trump’s approval rating on border security remains relatively high, at 53%, but his handling of other major issues, such as tariffs (35%) and healthcare (34%), shows troubling signs. Moreover, recent surveys, including those by Reuters/Ipsos and Marquette Law School, indicate a steady decline, with Trump reaching his lowest approval rating since taking office in his second term. This decline is exacerbated by frustrations over inflation, the economy, and contentious immigration policies.

Despite the challenges, there is potential for a recovery. Trump's recent focus on international issues, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict and U.S. military presence in Venezuela, has shifted attention away from domestic matters. However, analysts note that the president has limited control over key economic factors like interest rates and tariffs. This lack of control may make it difficult for Trump to reverse his declining approval without addressing more immediate concerns, such as inflation and rising living costs.

To regain support, experts suggest that Trump needs to reassess his economic policies, particularly his tariff approach, which has had negative effects on businesses and consumers. Reaffirming his commitment to affordability and emphasizing policies that align with the concerns of independent voters could help improve his approval rating. While Trump's loyal base remains steadfast, a broader appeal to swing voters will be critical for any sustained recovery in his public perception.

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• Trump’s poll numbers slip amid concerns over economy