US Republicans worry about uncertain election in long-standing stronghold

Voters went to the polls on Tuesday in a US election that was once seen as a routine Republican win, but has now become a gauge of Donald Trump's influence and a potential warning for a party with a fragile congressional majority. Although Trump is not a candidate in Tennessee's 7th House District, his impact looms large in a seat he secured by 22 points in 2024, historically one of the safest Republican districts.

Republicans still anticipate retaining the seat, but the threat of a narrow victory has turned what should have been an uneventful race into a tense contest, with recent polls indicating a close fight. A Democratic upsetor even a slim Republican marginwould alarm Washington and heighten GOP concerns about losing the House in 2026. With only a two-vote majority, Republican lawmakers warn that voter disengagement could have serious consequences.

Special elections are unpredictable, even in deep-red districts where people often assume a Republican win, House Speaker Mike Johnson said. You cant take anything for granted. Thats why we urge everyone to get out and votepeople are energized.

The anxiety comes amid a surge of Democratic momentum. Recent victories in Virginia and New Jersey, along with winning New Yorks mayoral race, have been seen as a critique of Trumps resurgence in politics. The Republican Party has taken notice, and Trump himself hosted a tele-rally with Johnson Monday, while Johnson campaigned alongside Republican nominee Matt Van Epps.

Trump expressed support for Van Epps, highlighting his values and loyalty to conservative principles. Van Epps, a West Point graduate and retired special-operations helicopter pilot, is running as a staunch Trump ally emphasizing law enforcement, border security, and low taxes. His Democratic opponent, state representative Aftyn Behn, a former social worker, has advocated for progressive policies including grocery-tax relief, rural healthcare expansion, abortion access, and marijuana reform.

Republicans have targeted Behns past social-media posts from the 2020 racial-justice protests, highlighting statements that appeared to support defunding police and justified radical actions. Tennessees 7th District, stretching from Nashvilles Music Row through affluent suburbs to conservative rural counties, typically gives Republicans around 60 percent of the vote. However, the latest Emerson College/The Hill poll shows Van Epps at 48 percent versus Behns 46 percent, within the margin of error. Earlier polls had shown Van Epps with an eight-point lead, but rising Democratic enthusiasm has narrowed the gap.

Party insiders now forecast a modest five-point victory for Van Epps, a sharp decline from Mark Greens 2024 landslide, and caution that anything closer would be troubling. Even an unlikely loss would energize Democrats and force Republicans to reassess their 2026 strategy. Early voting appears to have favored Behn, with young and urban voters turning out, while election-day voting is expected to lean Republican, especially in rural areas. Both parties have invested heavily, with Van Epps and allies spending $3.5 million on ads and Democratic groups contributing $2.4 million.

Author: Connor Blake