Who is a potential replacement for Nicolás Maduro?

The push for political change in Venezuela has intensified, with former US President Donald Trump actively seeking to remove Nicols Maduro from power. Trump has consistently criticized Maduros leadership, labeling his government a dictatorship and implementing extensive sanctions. Relations between the two leaders have been tense since Trumps first term, when he refused to recognize Maduro as Venezuelas legitimate president.

Trump escalated his approach by offering a $50 million reward for information leading to Maduros arrest, significantly higher than the $15 million bounty previously offered. He also designated Maduro as the leader of a terrorist organization, increased US military presence in the region, and carried out strikes against suspected drug trafficking operations near Venezuela.

Despite these pressures, Maduro remains defiant. In a phone conversation on November 21, he was offered safe passage out of Caracas, but his demandsincluding legal amnesty, lifting US sanctions for himself and other officials, and $200 millionwere rejected. Maduro publicly demonstrated his resilience by dancing at a rally in Caracas, signaling no intention to step down.

Experts argue that Maduro is unlikely to yield to external pressures. Any sudden departure could create a power vacuum, leading to instability. Historian Miguel Tinker Salas emphasizes that Venezuelas challenges go beyond Maduro, as the current political system is deeply entrenched across the country.

Key Figures Who Could Assume Power

Edmundo Gonzlez is recognized by the US as the winner of the disputed 2024 election. While Maduros administration declared him defeated, the oppositions own tallies suggest Gonzlez won decisively. He fled to Spain for safety. Analysts warn that installing Gonzlez without substantial US support could provoke chaos, as the military and police remain aligned with Maduro.

Mara Corina Machado leads the oppositions Vente Venezuela party and won a 2023 presidential primary with overwhelming support. She has been in hiding since 2024 but recently published a manifesto outlining a transition plan if Maduro leaves. Despite her prominence, some experts worry her close ties to US intervention could weaken her domestic support.

Delcy Rodrguez, Maduros vice president since 2018, is constitutionally next in line. She has been involved in key government roles and previously served under Hugo Chvez. Some Venezuelan officials have suggested a Madurismo without Maduro plan, with Rodrguez as the institutional figurehead while retired generals manage the transition. However, analysts doubt she could command widespread support outside Chavista loyalists.

Jorge Rodrguez, Delcys brother and president of the National Assembly, has negotiated with the US and remains influential. A gradual power transfer to Gonzlez could potentially see Jorge Rodrguez as a transitional leader due to his credibility within the government.

Diosdado Cabello, Maduros former interior minister, would likely seize control if Maduro departed abruptly. Cabello has strong military loyalty and the authority to maintain order, though his reputation as more repressive than Maduro makes him a problematic choice for democratic transition.

Vladimir Padrino Lpez, defense minister since 2014, holds significant sway over the military. While his leadership would be unacceptable to the opposition, he could ensure stability during a transitional period due to his influence over the armed forces and their economic networks.

In summary, while numerous figures could assume leadership if Maduro exits, each faces challenges balancing military loyalty, opposition demands, and international legitimacy. Any transition in Venezuela will require careful negotiation to avoid chaos and maintain order.

Author: Connor Blake