Cowboys vs. Lions: Expert predictions and top bets for Thursday Night Football

The Dallas Cowboys are heading to Detroit to face the Lions at Ford Field on Thursday. Unlike a typical Thursday night matchup, this game is not a short-week contest, as both teams played on Thanksgiving. The Lions appeared in the early afternoon, while the Cowboys played mid-afternoon, so the usual short-week adjustments dont apply.

The betting market has set the Lions as 3-point favorites, a key number in NFL wagering due to its frequent outcomes and impact on odds. A small shift around this line can influence the vig by roughly 22 cents. This spread is generally a consensus across sportsbooks, indicating stable market sentiment.

For my personal wager, I placed a bet on the Cowboys +3 early Monday morning, anticipating how the game could unfold ATS. BetMGM now has the Cowboys at +3 -115. My choice favors Dallas mainly due to significant injuries affecting Detroits offense.

Lions star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown left the Thanksgiving game in the first quarter with an ankle injury and is unlikely to play Thursday. Tight ends Sam LaPorta and backup Brock Wright will also be out. Jared Goffs offense relies heavily on timing with his receivers, so these absences could disrupt Detroits rhythm. The Lions will need to lean on their running game, while facing a Cowboys defensive line strengthened by Quinnen Williams.

If you want to support Detroit, the line is currently -3 at -105. My preference is Dallas, expecting Lions action to gradually shift as the week progresses. Timing your bet near kickoff could yield the best value for Cowboys +3 or better.

In terms of scoring, this is the second-highest total of the 2025 season, trailing only the Week 7 clash between the Commanders and Cowboys. The consensus total opened at 53.5 and has risen to 54.5, reflecting heavy movement toward the over. I am taking a unique approach by targeting a team total: Cowboys to surpass their projected scoring. The combination of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, and Javonte Williams should challenge the Lions defense, with Dak Prescott continuing his strong MVP-caliber season.

Player Prop Picks

• Isaac TeSlaa anytime TD (+200): With St. Brown out last week, TeSlaa played 94% of snaps and scored. This game offers a favorable scenario in a high-total matchup. Consider splitting your wager: half a unit at +200 and 0.05 units on a two-touchdown long shot, totaling 0.55 units to potentially win 2 units.
• Javonte Williams over 15.5 rush attempts (-130): Williams has dominated Dallas backfield, with 17, 20, and 22 carries in his last three games. He is on pace to surpass 1,000 rushing yards this game, facing a Lions defense ranked 11th in rushing yards allowed. Given the expected fast-paced game and potential run-heavy script, this is worth a half-unit bet.

Overall, the matchup favors the Cowboys in a shootout environment, with key Detroit injuries and Dallas offensive weapons creating favorable betting opportunities.

Author: Gavin Porter