Explanation of the 2026 World Cup draw, including the best and worst case scenarios for the USMNT

The 2026 FIFA World Cup draw took place at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C., a landmark venue by the Potomac River. The event set the stage for 42 of the 48 teams already qualified to learn their group placements for next years tournament, while 22 teams competing for the remaining six spots also discovered potential group positions if they qualify.

How the 2026 World Cup Draw Works

For the first time, the World Cup will feature 48 teams, divided into 12 groups of four for the opening stage. The 42 confirmed teams, along with six playoff slots, were sorted into four pots of 12 teams each:

• Pot 1: United States, Switzerland, New Zealand, plus host nations Canada and Mexico
• Pot 2: Next 12 highest-ranked teams
• Pot 3: Following 12 highest-ranked teams
• Pot 4: Next six highest-ranked teams and six playoff winners

The playoffs are divided into UEFA and FIFA brackets. UEFA Play-Offs A-D determine four of the six remaining spots, while FIFA Play-Offs 1 and 2 provide the last two places. Matches are set for March 26 (semi-finals) and March 31 (finals) in locations like Guadalajara and Monterrey.

Playoff Overview

UEFA Play-Off A: Italy vs Northern Ireland, Wales vs Bosnia & Herzegovina. Winners meet March 31.
UEFA Play-Off B: Ukraine vs Sweden, Poland vs Albania. Winners meet March 31.
UEFA Play-Off C: Turkey vs Romania, Slovakia vs Kosovo. Winners meet March 31.
UEFA Play-Off D: Denmark vs North Macedonia, Czech Republic vs Republic of Ireland. Winners meet March 31.

FIFA Play-Off 1: New Caledonia vs Jamaica, winner faces Congo DR March 31.
FIFA Play-Off 2: Bolivia vs Suriname, winner faces Iraq March 31.

Draw Procedure

The draw started with the host nations: Mexico as Group A, Canada as Group B, and the United States as Group D. The remaining Pot 1 teams were drawn into the other groups. Team 2 comes from Pot 2, Team 3 from Pot 3, and Team 4 from Pot 4, including playoff winners. FIFA established two separate knockout pathways to ensure top-ranked teams avoid each other until the semifinals or final.

USMNT Group Scenarios

The United States, ranked 14th globally, will be Team 1 in Group D. Pot 2 offers mid-tier teams like Croatia, Morocco, and Colombia, while Pot 3 and Pot 4 provide additional competitors. Best-case scenario: facing lower-ranked Austria (Pot 2), Uzbekistan (Pot 3), and New Zealand (Pot 4), giving the US a strong chance to advance. Worst-case scenario: drawn with Morocco (Pot 2), Norway (Pot 3), and potentially Italy from UEFA Play-Off A.

Group D Lineup

The United States Group D now includes Paraguay (ranked 39) and Australia (ranked 26). The final spot will be determined by the winner of UEFA Play-Off C, featuring Turkey, Romania, Slovakia, or Kosovo. Turkey currently leads in FIFA rankings at 25, while Kosovo is the lowest-ranked at 80.

Author: Olivia Parker