Week 14 NFL picks against the spread: Bears aim to maintain 1st place against Packers

The Chicago Bears' current success traces back to a pivotal moment at Lambeau Field in the previous season's finale. At that time, the Bears were enduring a 10-game losing streak with an interim coach and had not defeated the Packers since 2018. However, a last-minute drive by Caleb Williams led to a game-winning field goal as time expired, setting a positive tone that carried into the offseason.

Under new head coach Ben Johnson, the Bears are now 9-3. If the season ended after Week 14, Chicago would claim the top seed in the NFC. With five games remaining, they still face tests, including their upcoming matchup against the 8-3-1 Green Bay Packers, which will determine the NFC North leader. Despite the Bears strong 8-4 record against the spread, they are 6.5-point underdogs due to a modest point differential (+6), limited high-quality wins, and middling advanced metrics (19th in DVOA). Still, their dominant performance against the Eagles, including effective rushing and a healthier defense, cannot be ignored. The Packers, coming off a strong road win at Detroit, are expected to provide a playoff-caliber challenge. The Bears are worth backing as determined 6.5-point underdogs in this storied rivalry.

Week 14 NFL Spread Picks

• Cowboys (+3) vs. Lions: Detroit struggles with injuries to key receivers and a weakened offensive line. Dallas is playing stronger and is likely to cover, possibly even win.
• Jets (+3) vs. Dolphins: Both teams have recent hot streaks, but Miami tends to underperform in cold weather. Take the Jets with the points.
• Steelers (+6) vs. Ravens: The Ravens early-season promise hasnt translated into consistent performance. Pittsburgh can keep this close and cover the spread.
• Seahawks (-7) vs. Falcons: Falcons often falter in key moments. The Seahawks road success makes them a reliable pick here.
• Bengals (+5.5) vs. Bills: Despite a weak defense, the Bengals have momentum with Joe Burrows return and could keep the game competitive.
• Browns (-4) vs. Titans: The Titans are struggling heavily this season. The Browns defensive line matchup should give them an advantage.
• Commanders (+2) vs. Vikings: Neither team is particularly strong, but Washington is likely the better team in this matchup.
• Saints (+8.5) vs. Buccaneers: Despite a prior loss to Tampa Bay, New Orleans has shown improvement under Tyler Shough and could keep the game close.
• Colts (-1.5) vs. Jaguars: Indianapolis remains solid despite recent losses and should reassert themselves in the AFC South race.
• Broncos (-7.5) vs. Raiders: The Raiders inconsistency makes Denver the safer pick.
• Cardinals (+8) vs. Rams: Arizona tends to lose close games but often performs better than their record suggests, keeping them within striking distance.
• Texans (+3.5) vs. Chiefs: Houston is on a midseason upswing, while Kansas City struggles in tight games. The Texans are favored to cover.
• Chargers (+3) vs. Eagles: Justin Herberts status is crucial, but if he plays, the Chargers are the stronger pick as Philadelphia appears inconsistent despite an 8-4 record.

Analysis: Bears’ Surge Rooted in Last Season’s Turning Point

The Chicago Bears’ current 9-3 record is not accidental. Looking back, the pivotal moment came in the previous season’s finale at Lambeau Field, where a last-minute drive by Caleb Williams secured a win against the Packers. That victory snapped a long losing streak and set the tone for the team’s offseason and the arrival of head coach Ben Johnson.

Despite being 6.5-point underdogs against Green Bay, the Bears have shown resilience, winning 8 of 12 games against the spread. Their modest +6 point differential and middling advanced metrics (19th in DVOA) suggest caution, but recent performances—especially a dominant win over the Eagles—highlight the team’s potential when the rushing attack and defense operate at full strength.

Looking ahead, the matchup against the 8-3-1 Packers will likely determine the NFC North leader. While Chicago faces challenges, their trajectory demonstrates a team capable of competing at the highest level, making them a strong pick in this storied rivalry.

Sources:

• Week 14 NFL against-the-spread picks, predictions for every game: Bears look to stay in 1st place vs. Packers

Author: Lucas Grant
Lucas Grant is a sports journalist with extensive experience covering football and basketball championships. Known for factual accuracy and an engaging, dynamic writing style.