NFL playoff standings: Ravens, Chiefs suffer significant blow with Thanksgiving defeats

As the NFL season advances, every matchup becomes critical for playoff positioning and division races. Thanksgiving Week 13 games had major implications, with the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs both enduring significant defeats, reshaping the playoff landscape.

Current NFL Playoff Standings (Entering Black Friday)

NFC Contenders

1. Los Angeles Rams (9-2)
   Next Game: At Carolina Panthers, Sunday
   Highlight: L.A. holds a 58% chance of clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC, according to The Athletic.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)
   Next Game: vs. Chicago Bears, Friday
   Highlight: Eagles maintain strong control of the NFC East. Recent loss to Dallas affected their top seed prospects. Playoff simulations give them a 9798% chance to win the division.
3. Chicago Bears (8-3)
   Next Game: vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Friday
   Highlight: The Bears are underdogs in the NFC North, with division-winning odds between 16% and 24%.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)
   Next Game: vs. Arizona Cardinals, Sunday
   Highlight: Both NFL.com and ESPN estimate an 84% chance for the Bucs to reach the playoffs.
5. Seattle Seahawks (8-3)
   Next Game: vs. Minnesota Vikings, Sunday
   Highlight: ESPN gives the Seahawks an 87% probability of a postseason berth.
6. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)
   Next Game: vs. Chicago Bears, Week 14
   Highlight: Packers are favorites for the NFC North at 73%, per The Athletic.
7. San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
   Next Game: At Cleveland Browns, Sunday
   Highlight: Strong playoff favorites with an 89% probability to qualify.
8. Detroit Lions (7-5)
   Next Game: vs. Dallas Cowboys, Week 14
   Highlight: 55% chance of playoff qualification, but only 10% to capture the division.
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1)
   Next Game: At Detroit Lions, Week 14
   Highlight: 24% likelihood to make the playoffs.
10. Carolina Panthers (6-6)
    Next Game: vs. Los Angeles Rams, Sunday
    Highlight: 25% chance to reach the playoffs and 24% to win the NFC South.

AFC Contenders

1. New England Patriots (10-2)
   Next Game: vs. New York Giants, Monday
   Highlight: Leading the AFC East by 2.5 games, Patriots have a 93% chance to secure the division and 56% chance for the AFC's top seed.
2. Denver Broncos (9-2)
   Next Game: At Washington Commanders, Sunday
   Highlight: Broncos are heavy favorites to win the AFC West at 78%, with a 26% shot at the No. 1 AFC seed.
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-3)
   Next Game: vs. Houston Texans, Sunday
   Highlight: Colts hold a 64% probability to win the AFC South and 89% chance to reach the playoffs.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
   Next Game: vs. Buffalo Bills, Sunday
   Highlight: Playoff chances improve following Baltimore's loss to Cincinnati.
5. Buffalo Bills (7-4)
   Next Game: At Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday
   Highlight: Division-winning odds remain low at 8%, but playoff qualification is likely at 83%.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)
   Next Game: At Tennessee Titans, Sunday
   Highlight: 80% playoff probability, with a 27% chance of winning the AFC South.
7. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
   Next Game: vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday
   Highlight: 62% playoff probability, but only 16% to capture the division.
8. Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
   Next Game: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 14
   Highlight: Post-Thanksgiving loss drops Ravens' playoff probability from 69% to 55%, complicating division title chances.
9. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
   Next Game: vs. Houston Texans, Week 14
   Highlight: Thanksgiving defeat reduces postseason probability from 52% to 35%, with division title hopes nearly extinguished.

Thanksgiving Recap

Key games influenced playoff probabilities significantly:

• Bengals vs. Ravens: Joe Burrow led Cincinnati to force five turnovers, ending Baltimores four-game winning streak.
• Chiefs vs. Cowboys: Dak Prescott powered Dallas to victory, while Kansas Citys struggles returned.

Analysis: Thanksgiving Week Shifts NFL Playoff Landscape

The Thanksgiving games had immediate and measurable effects on the playoff probabilities for several AFC teams. Baltimore's loss to Cincinnati dropped their postseason chances from 69% to 55%, while Kansas City's defeat to Dallas slashed their probability from 52% to 35%. These outcomes not only affect wild-card positioning but also diminish both teams' realistic paths to division titles.

In contrast, the NFC picture remains relatively stable. Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and San Francisco continue to hold strong playoff probabilities, with minimal impact from Thanksgiving matchups. The Eagles’ loss to Dallas slightly affected their top-seed potential, but their division control remains nearly certain at 97–98%.

Looking ahead, the upcoming Week 14 games will be pivotal. Ravens and Chiefs must recover quickly to maintain postseason relevance, while teams like the Colts, Patriots, and Broncos have opportunities to solidify division leads. The NFC North remains competitive, with Green Bay and Chicago jockeying closely for the top spot, and the NFC South race stays wide open, particularly for Carolina and Tampa Bay.

Overall, Thanksgiving served as a reminder of the NFL's volatility: a single loss can sharply alter playoff odds, making every game from here on decisive for postseason positioning.

Sources:

• NFL playoff picture: Ravens, Chiefs take a big hit with Thanksgiving losses