NFL betting trends for Thanksgiving and Week 13's biggest games: Odds and lines to watch

Thanksgiving brings more than turkey and pumpkin pieit delivers a full slate of NFL action, both on the field and at the betting window. Heres a detailed look at betting trends and odds for this years holiday games, including the Black Friday matchup between NFC division leaders. All odds are from BetMGM and may change.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 48.5)

Detroit has hosted a Thanksgiving game almost every year since 1934, with a 38-44-2 record. Last years win over Chicago ended a seven-game losing streak on Turkey Day, but the Lions went just 3-5 ATS in the last eight Thanksgiving contests, including 0-2 ATS as favorites. Green Bay has a 15-18-2 record on Thanksgiving, including 14-17-2 on the road. Last year, the Packers defeated Miami 30-17 as 3.5-point favorites.

This century, Green Bay is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS versus Detroit on Thanksgiving, though the Lions have dominated recent matchups, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS since 2021. Detroit narrowly beat the Giants in Week 12, failing to cover as a 14-point favorite, ending a streak of 13 consecutive post-loss covers. Green Bay comes in on wins over the Giants and Vikings, halting a three-game ATS skid, though the Packers are just 2-7 ATS overall this season and 1-4 ATS on the road.

Historical totals trends: Eight of 11 games at Ford Field from 2010-2020 went over 48 points, but the under has hit in three of four games since 2021. Detroit and Green Bay have topped 50 points in seven of the last 11 head-to-head clashes.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 52) at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have hosted Thanksgiving for nearly 60 years, compiling a 34-22-1 record and currently on a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS). Historically, Dallas struggled over the previous decade, going 4-8 SU and 2-10 ATS. Kansas City has appeared only 10 times, with their last Thanksgiving game in 2006.

Dallas is a rare underdog this year, with the only other Thanksgiving underdog instance being in 2017. The Cowboys recently completed a dramatic Week 12 comeback against Philadelphia and have won consecutive games for the first time this season. Kansas City also rallied in Week 12 but has failed to cover in three straight games, holding a 1-4 SU and ATS record away from home in 2025 as favorites.

Totals trends: The under has hit in Kansas Citys last six games, while Dallas has cleared the total in all five Thanksgiving appearances this decade.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 52)

Thanksgiving night games have become a tradition since 2006, producing a 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS record for favorites. Cincinnati has appeared once (2010), while Baltimore has hosted twice, winning both games.

Baltimore has won five straight games, though fell short ATS as 14-point favorites in the latest outing. Cincinnati has lost four in a row but covered as 7.5-point underdogs in the last loss. Prime-time trends: Ravens went 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS from 2022-2024, but are 1-2 SU/ATS in national games this season. Historical rivalry: Baltimore has won four straight over Cincinnati (3-1 ATS), with over hitting in seven of the last nine matchups.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 44.5)

The Black Friday game was added recently, with the Dolphins winning in 2023 and the Chiefs edging the Raiders last year. Chicago leads the NFC North at 8-1 SU with a four-game winning streak and has gone 7-2 ATS during this run. As an underdog, the Bears are 4-1 SU and ATS since Week 2.

Philadelphia recently lost to Dallas, ending a four-game SU and ATS streak. The Eagles are 4-1 at home this season and have beaten the Bears five straight times, going 4-1 ATS. Totals trends: Philadelphia is on a three-game under streak, while Chicago has exceeded the total in four of six road games.

Summary

• The Packers-Lions game continues a competitive Thanksgiving rivalry with mixed ATS results.
• Kansas City struggles on the road, while Dallas capitalizes as a rare underdog.
• Baltimore dominates Thanksgiving night history but faces a Bengals squad looking to rebound.
• Chicagos narrow victories continue, challenging Philadelphia in the inaugural Black Friday matchup.

Analysis: Thanksgiving NFL Matchups and Betting Trends

The Thanksgiving NFL games this year offer a mix of intriguing matchups, with teams looking to either continue their momentum or recover from recent struggles. Here's a closer look at the key betting trends and odds for these holiday games.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions have historically been a staple of Thanksgiving Day football but have struggled against the spread (ATS) in recent years. While they snapped a seven-game losing streak with a win over Chicago last year, their record at Ford Field against the Packers has been inconsistent. Green Bay, despite a shaky season, has performed better than expected in Thanksgiving matchups, with a solid record against the Lions in recent years. However, Detroit has dominated in the past few seasons, making them the favorites this time around.

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys have a strong Thanksgiving record, but they find themselves as underdogs for only the second time in the last decade. This year, they come off a dramatic comeback win against Philadelphia, while Kansas City struggles to cover the spread away from home. The Cowboys’ ability to cover and their overall strong performance during Thanksgiving games could give them an edge here, despite Kansas City’s explosive potential.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Historically, Baltimore has dominated on Thanksgiving night, and their strong performance in prime-time games over the past few seasons continues to put them in a favorable position. Cincinnati, however, will look to rebound from a rough stretch, having lost four straight. Although the Bengals have managed to cover the spread in their losses, Baltimore's defense and recent form make them the clear favorites in this matchup.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles

The "Black Friday" game between Chicago and Philadelphia brings a new level of excitement to the holiday, with the Bears leading the NFC North. Chicago has shown impressive form, especially as underdogs, but they face a tough challenge against the Eagles, who are coming off a rare loss. Philadelphia has dominated the Bears in recent meetings, and despite a three-game under trend, their overall strength could prove difficult for the Bears to overcome.

Summary

The Thanksgiving NFL slate is filled with compelling storylines. From Green Bay's past success against Detroit to Dallas' underdog status, each game offers betting insights. Baltimore remains a strong contender on Thanksgiving night, while Chicago’s underdog status may add to the intrigue in the first-ever Black Friday game. Overall, the matchups showcase a variety of teams fighting for playoff positions, making this Thanksgiving one for both fans and bettors alike.

Sources:

• NFL betting, odds, lines: Betting trends to know for Thanksgiving, Week 13's biggest games