Thanksgiving travel prediction: AAA forecasts almost 82 million Americans to travel during the holiday - setting another record
- Last update: 11/30/2025
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Approximately 81.8 million Americans are projected to travel at least 50 miles this week for Thanksgiving, marking a 2% increase from last year's record of 80.2 million, according to AAA.
The majority of travelers, around 73.3 million people or 90%, are expected to use cars. This adds roughly 1.3 million more drivers to the roads compared to last Thanksgiving. Some of this increase may be due to passengers opting to drive rather than fly following recent flight disruptions caused by the U.S. government shutdown.
The Federal Aviation Administration recently lifted emergency flight restrictions, allowing airlines to operate on normal schedules. Currently, over 6 million Americans are anticipated to fly, a 2% increase compared to 2024.
Other forms of travel, such as buses, trains, and boats, are projected to rise by 8.5%, totaling nearly 2.5 million travelers. AAA notes that last-minute bookings for buses and trains could climb this year due to uncertainties in air travel.
Costs for driving and flying remain close to last years levels. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is $3.07, slightly up from $3.06 in 2024. A round-trip domestic flight continues to average around $700.
Regarding timing, AAA anticipates the heaviest road congestion on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons before Thanksgiving Day. Traffic is expected to be heavy for drivers returning home on Sunday after the holiday. The optimal time for driving is Thanksgiving Day itself, when traffic disruptions are expected to be minimal.
Analysis: Thanksgiving Travel Trends in 2026
As an author reviewing the latest AAA projections, the numbers indicate a clear continuation of pre-pandemic travel patterns. Approximately 81.8 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles this week, a modest 2% increase from last year’s record of 80.2 million. The majority, around 90%, will rely on cars, which adds an estimated 1.3 million additional drivers to the roads compared to last Thanksgiving.
This surge in car travel appears partially linked to recent flight disruptions caused by the U.S. government shutdown, despite the FAA lifting emergency restrictions. Air travel is still expected to rise slightly, with over 6 million Americans flying this year, marking another 2% increase from 2024. Meanwhile, alternative travel modes such as buses, trains, and boats are projected to grow by 8.5%, driven by last-minute bookings amid lingering uncertainties in air travel.
From a cost perspective, expenses remain stable. Gasoline averages $3.07 per gallon, virtually unchanged from last year, while domestic round-trip flights continue to average around $700. Timing will be critical for drivers, with peak congestion expected on Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving and lighter traffic on the holiday itself. Return trips on Sunday are likely to face heavy delays.
Overall, these figures suggest a robust return to traditional holiday travel patterns, with cars remaining the dominant mode of transportation and travelers adjusting plans based on reliability and cost considerations.
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