Experts monitoring El Niño for potential impact on 2026 hurricane season.

Meteorologists are closely watching El Nio as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season approaches, assessing how shifting ocean conditions could influence storm formation and intensity, with early signs suggesting a potentially below average season.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is set to officially start on June 1, and meteorologists are actively observing conditions that could affect storm development and intensity. Central to these assessments is the state of the El Niño/La Niña cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which plays a crucial role in shaping Atlantic hurricane activity.

El Niño’s Role in Forecasts

Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, highlighted the main uncertainty for the 2026 season: the presence and strength of El Niño. He explained that the key question for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is whether El Niño will develop and, if so, how intense it will be. If El Niño forms as projected, experts anticipate a slightly below-average hurricane season in the Atlantic.

Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, stated that overall hurricane activity is expected to be somewhat reduced compared to average years, although the precise reduction remains uncertain.

Historical Season Statistics

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), between 1991 and 2020, the Atlantic hurricane seasons averaged approximately:

• 14 named storms
• 7 hurricanes
• 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

Mechanism of El Niño Impact

El Niño is characterized by the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which can significantly alter Atlantic hurricane activity. Hazelton explained that El Niño typically causes increased rising air over the tropical Pacific. This generates stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, which generally reduces hurricane formation, particularly in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico regions.

However, the presence of El Niño does not guarantee a quiet season. Historical data show that major hurricanes have occurred during periods of weak El Niño, including Category 5 storms such as Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018.

Recent Storm Example: Hurricane Melissa

Hurricane Melissa recently impacted the southwestern coast of Jamaica around 1 p.m. ET on a Tuesday. The storm generated extreme winds of approximately 185 mph. As Melissa moved from western to northern Jamaica, it reached Category 4 intensity, with sustained winds of 145 mph. Torrential rainfall led to flash flooding and life-threatening storm surges. Local reports showed severe property damage, including vehicles crushed by fallen trees. Meteorologists confirmed that Melissa’s landfall ranks among the most powerful in Atlantic Basin records.

El Niño Likelihood for 2026

NOAA currently indicates a 60% chance of neutral conditions during the February-April period, suggesting a possible transition from La Niña. Klotzbach noted that recent increases in upper-ocean heat content in the central and eastern tropical Pacific may signal a shift toward neutral or El Niño conditions. For the peak hurricane months of August through October, NOAA projects a 59% probability of El Niño.

Additional Factors Affecting Hurricane Activity

While the El Niño/La Niña cycle is a critical determinant, other factors will influence the 2026 season:

• Atlantic Water Temperatures: Warm waters in the Caribbean and east of the Antilles can counteract some suppressing effects of El Niño.
• Tropical Atlantic Conditions: Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures may reduce storm intensity.
• African Monsoon Strength: Stronger monsoon activity can offset El Niño’s suppressing influence and enhance hurricane formation in the eastern Atlantic, as observed in 2015 and 2018–2019.

Impact on Pacific Hurricanes

El Niño typically enhances hurricane activity in the Pacific basin. Hazelton explained that the location of the warmest waters—whether in the eastern or central Pacific—affects which areas experience above-normal activity. Hurricanes forming in the eastern Pacific usually remain offshore, whereas storms in the central Pacific have the potential to impact Hawaii.

Early Seasonal Forecasts

Klotzbach emphasized that definitive seasonal forecasts remain premature. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions may change significantly in late winter and early spring. Colorado State University is scheduled to release its initial 2026 hurricane forecast on April 9, followed by NOAA’s official forecast in late May.

Season Overview

The Atlantic hurricane season officially extends from June 1 to November 30. Experts continue to monitor El Niño development, Atlantic water temperatures, and other contributing factors to determine the likely intensity and frequency of storms in 2026. Close observation of these variables will inform preparations and risk assessments for coastal regions across the Atlantic basin.

Sources:

• Will hurricane season 2026 be bad? Why experts are watching El Niño (Yahoo News)
• Meteorologists bet on ‘swing’ to warming El Niño weather cycle (Financial Times)
• Strong El Niño Forecast to Suppress 2026 Hurricane Season (NationalToday.com)
• Will hurricane season 2026 be bad? Why experts are watching El Niño.