Ranchers in Texas and Oklahoma prepare for difficult summer ahead following sixth consecutive year of drought.

Ranchers in Texas and Oklahoma are bracing for a tough summer as drought grips the region for a sixth straight year. Shrinking water supplies and dry pastures are forcing difficult decisions, raising concerns over livestock losses and long term agricultural stability.

Ranchers across Texas and Oklahoma are preparing for a difficult summer as the Southern Plains region faces its sixth consecutive year of drought. In June 2022, a cattle auction in Texas Lake Country extended nearly 24 hours, with ranchers selling more than 4,000 animals, averaging approximately 200 cows per hour, due to limited water availability and dry pastures. The event highlighted the ongoing strain on livestock producers in the area.

Economic and Agricultural Losses

The prolonged drought has caused severe financial consequences for agriculture in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. From 2020 to 2024, losses from failed crops, increasing feed costs, and forced cattle sales were estimated at around US$23.6 billion. Depleted rangelands have also contributed to intense wildfires, adding to both economic and environmental pressures. While historically such droughts occur about once per decade, recent events have been more prolonged, leaving insufficient time for water sources, farmland, and native rangelands to recover before subsequent droughts.

Historical Context and Ongoing Challenges

Many cattle producers were still recovering from the 2010–2015 drought when a sudden flash drought emerged in western Texas in spring 2020, triggering the current multistate, multiyear drought. Despite heavy spring rainfall in 2025 and significant flooding in central Texas, dry conditions persisted, and a major winter storm in January 2026 did not affect the driest areas.

Primary Factors Driving the Drought

Research from the Southern Regional Climate Center and the National Integrated Drought Information System identifies three major contributors to the ongoing drought:

• Rising temperatures combined with La Niña climate conditions.
• Persistent shortages of water supplies.
• Lingering economic impacts from previous droughts.

Weather and Climate Considerations

The Southern Plains are highly susceptible to rapid drought development. Between 2020 and 2025, at least five flash droughts, characterized by sudden onset or intensification, were recorded. Scientists warn that global warming may increase the frequency and intensity of these events. Winter precipitation in the region is closely linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which affects global weather patterns. Five of the last six years have experienced La Niña conditions, producing warmer and drier winters, a major factor in the continued drought in Texas and southwestern Oklahoma into 2026.

Water Supply Shortages

Extended heat and dry conditions since 2020 have drastically reduced both surface water and groundwater in the region. Key reservoirs and aquifers, including the Edwards Aquifer serving around 2.5 million people, reached record-low levels in 2024 and 2025 and remained low into 2026. Even major storms have been insufficient to restore these water sources. Rivers feeding the Southern Plains, such as the Rio Grande, continue to experience low flow. Snow deficits in Colorado and the western U.S. during winter 2026 indicate that summer runoff and reservoir levels will remain limited. Early February measurements showed Elephant Butte at 11%, Amistad at 34%, and Falcon at 20% capacity.

Economic Impacts on Agriculture

Repeated droughts have hindered economic recovery in the Southern Plains. During the 2010–2015 drought, Texas cattle producers sold about 20% of the statewide herd. Recovery has been slow, as pasture regrowth takes over a year and young heifers require two years to produce calves. By 2022, cattle numbers had not returned to pre-2010 levels, prompting another significant sell-off. Between 2020 and 2024, cattle populations declined as follows:

• Texas: from 13.1 million to 12 million
• Oklahoma: from 5.3 million to 4.7 million
• Kansas: from 6.5 million to 6.15 million

Crop losses were also substantial in 2022. In Texas, 25% of corn and 45% of soybeans went unharvested. Cotton production fell from an expected US$2.4 billion to about US$640 million, representing a 74% reduction.

Prospects for Relief

With La Niña weakening in early 2026 and the potential onset of El Niño, wetter conditions may return by fall and winter, potentially easing drought conditions. However, sustained rainfall over several months will be necessary, and spring and summer conditions could worsen before improvement occurs.

Expert Insights

Joel Lisonbee, senior associate scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, and William Baule, research assistant professor in atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University, note that ending the prolonged drought will rely on consistent rainfall and broader climatic changes.

Sources:

• Texas, Okla. ranchers brace for harsh summer after 6th year of drought
• Sixth year of drought in Texas and Oklahoma leaves ranchers bracing for another harsh summer
• Southern Plains Drought Assessment 2020-2025