Analysis: Zelensky of Ukraine confronted with difficult decision between unfavorable agreement and no agreement

US President Donald Trump has delayed his self-imposed Thanksgiving deadline for a resolution in Ukraine, despite his push to present himself as a mediator. This development suggests that the upcoming meeting in Moscow between Trumps envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the Kremlin is unlikely to produce an immediate settlement to end Russias invasion.

The divide between Kyiv and Moscow remains stark, rooted in deep-seated sacrifice, anxiety, and loss. Russian President Vladimir Putins insistence on retaining control over all of Ukraines eastern Donetsk region continues to be a major obstacle.

The latest US proposal reportedly removes the key concession from last weeks leaked plan, a move that Kyiv and European allies consider unwise both militarily and politically. Given Russias decade-long history of invasions and diplomatic maneuvering, doubts persist over Moscows sincerity.

Efforts to negotiate separate deals with Ukraine and Russia, in the hope they will align, create an illusion of progress but repeatedly fail in practice. Fundamental disagreements remain entrenched.

The proposed deal largely revolves around hypothetical concepts about alliances, financing, and limitations. Historically, these ideas often change or vanish entirely once agreements are signed. Ukraine may not need a 600,000-strong army if genuine peace is achieved, and NATO membership could become less urgent as the country focuses on post-war reconstruction and demobilization.

Russias potential reentry into the G8 remains unlikely, given tensions with European nations. Funding Ukraines reconstruction would be complex and opaque under any plan, reflecting broader challenges in both countries business environments.

The central question remains whether any deal would actually end the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces a difficult decision: balancing future security guarantees from the US and Europe against the political and military costs of conceding Donetsk. If Russia does not honor the agreement, the choice becomes even more problematic.

On the ground, Ukraine faces multiple crises. Trumps postponed deadline has overshadowed a corruption scandal, while Kyiv struggles with military manpower shortages and uncertain European funding next year. Russian advances continue in Zaporizhzhia, Pokrovsk in Donetsk, and Kupiansk in the north, stretching Ukrainian forces thin.

The remaining Donetsk territory under Ukrainian control is at risk this winter. The key military hub of Kramatorsk faces ongoing Russian drone attacks. Regaining territory from Russia appears unlikely in the near term. Kyiv and its allies are focused on whether Russia will falter first.

Kyiv hopes to exhaust Russias resources and economy, though predicting collapse in a closed society is impossible. The Wagner rebellion of 2023 illustrated that unexpected events can dramatically shift the situation. Ukraines challenges, however, are more visible and acute.

The path ahead for Zelensky is dangerous. Russia is better equipped and making territorial gains. Ukraine faces existential stakes, without the luxury of Moscow halting aggression at will. Yet, months of diplomatic uncertainty have paradoxically brought the prospect of a deal closer.

The idea of Ukraine surrendering land to Moscow in exchange for peace was widely rejected earlier this year, including during the Biden administration. It appeared in the initial version of Trumps 28-point plan but was removed from the European counterproposal, though it still aligns with Putins maximalist ambitions.

A cycle is likely to repeat: Trumps envoy Witkoff will hear in Moscow that Putin insists on Donetsk concessions for peace, report back to Trump, and Zelensky will again face pressure, potentially leading to another self-imposed deadline around a holiday.

Analysis: The Stalled Peace Process and Its Implications

The delay in President Donald Trump’s self-imposed Thanksgiving deadline highlights the ongoing complexity of the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Despite Trump’s push to present himself as a mediator, his envoy, Steve Witkoff’s upcoming meeting in Moscow is unlikely to bring immediate results. The gap between Kyiv and Moscow remains deep, fueled by historical tensions and current realities on the ground.

One major stumbling block continues to be Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand for control over the entire Donetsk region. This insistence undermines the possibility of a quick resolution, as it goes against Ukraine’s core territorial integrity. Meanwhile, the US has shifted its stance, removing key concessions from a previously leaked plan. This has sparked concerns among Kyiv and its European allies about the potential long-term consequences of such a move, both politically and militarily.

The idea of negotiating separate deals with Ukraine and Russia, while aiming for alignment, continues to fail in practice. Disagreements over military alliances, funding, and peace terms remain deeply entrenched. These issues reveal the illusion of progress that can be created by diplomatic talks, where promises of alliances and economic aid often evaporate once the ink is dry on agreements.

Moreover, the question of whether any peace agreement would genuinely end the war remains unresolved. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces difficult decisions ahead. The prospect of securing future security guarantees from the West could be at odds with the political and military costs of ceding Donetsk. The uncertainty surrounding Russia’s commitment to any deal only adds to the tension.

On the battlefield, Ukraine faces ongoing challenges. Russian advances continue in key regions, stretching Ukrainian forces and threatening remaining territories under Kyiv’s control. Kramatorsk, a crucial military hub, faces constant drone attacks. With Ukraine’s resources increasingly strained, the path forward is perilous. The window for regaining lost territory is narrowing, and Ukraine’s hope now lies in whether Russia will falter under pressure.

In the context of these developments, Trump’s postponed deadline adds yet another layer of complexity to a negotiation process that has proven to be both unpredictable and dangerous. The looming question remains: can a diplomatic resolution emerge from the current stalemate, or will the cycle of negotiations continue without delivering tangible results?

Sources:

• Analysis: Ukraine’s Zelensky faces hideous choice between bad deal and no deal