Can India have it both ways with a trade deal with Washington and a warm welcome for Putin?

When Vladimir Putin arrives in New Delhi this Thursday, he will receive the ceremonial treatment reserved for one of Indias longest-standing allies. At the same time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is working to sustain a strong strategic partnership with a global competitor: the United States. India is, in essence, managing a diplomatic balancing act.

On one front, India considers acquiring advanced Russian fighter jets, securing discounted oil, and maintaining the historical ties established during the Cold War. On the other, it seeks cooperation with the U.S. in technology, commerce, and investment, while hoping for relief from steep tariffs imposed by Washington.

Following Russias invasion of Ukraine, India has leveraged its strategic importancea large market and key position in the Indo-Pacificto attract attention from both the Kremlin and the White House. Putins visit, the first since the war began, coincides with a sensitive period for Modi, as New Delhi negotiates a critical trade agreement with Washington after facing 50% tariffs, partly due to its continued purchases of Russian oil.

To ease tensions with the U.S., India has reduced its Russian oil imports and agreed to purchase 2.2 million metric tons of liquefied petroleum gas from the United States. Yet, key discussions with Putin are expected to center on defense deals, including weapons India considers essential for security against Pakistan and China, both of which have seen heightened border tensions in recent years.

This situation highlights Indias complex geopolitical environment: Russia is closely allied with China, which itself supplies arms to Pakistan. By hosting Putin with full honors, New Delhi signals to both Western and Chinese powers that it retains strategic alternatives. According to Kanti Bajpai, a visiting professor at Ashoka University, this approach allows India to maintain its relationship with Russia while also signaling that it has multiple options, increasing its diplomatic leverage.

Indias bond with Russia dates back to the Cold War, when India, though officially non-aligned, relied on Soviet industrial and economic support. The partnership strengthened in the 1970s as the U.S. bolstered Pakistan militarily and financially. Russia became a reliable counterweight, supplying arms and defense support. Despite a slight reduction in Russian weapon purchases over the past four years, Moscow remains Indias largest military supplier, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Much of Indias Russian military hardware is intended to counter China, now one of Russias closest partners, while China continues supplying advanced arms to Pakistan. Russian Su-30 jets, for instance, form the backbone of Indias air force and were reportedly used by Pakistan during border skirmishes.

Recent discussions with Russia are likely to focus on acquiring the Su-57, Indias potential next-generation fighter jet. However, economic ties have dominated headlines, especially Indias opportunistic increase in Russian oil imports following global sanctions on Moscow. This strategy allowed India to fuel its growing economy while defending its populations needs, even as it faced international criticism.

U.S. pressure escalated in August when Washington imposed 50% tariffs on India, citing trade imbalances and Russian oil purchases, followed by sanctions on Russian oil companies in October. This has pressured India to reconsider its economic and diplomatic positioning, including strengthening ties with China. Shortly after the tariffs, Modi visited China for the first time in seven years, meeting Xi Jinping in a summit highlighting Beijings global influence.

Indias engagement with both Washington and Moscow reflects its broader strategy of maintaining multiple strategic partnerships. While negotiating a new trade deal with the U.S., India continues to preserve its relationship with Russia. Experts note that the Kremlin understands Indias domestic and diplomatic constraints, giving New Delhi some flexibility.

Nevertheless, this dual approach faces scrutiny, especially with major defense contracts under discussion during Putins visit. India must carefully navigate its commitments to avoid jeopardizing negotiations with the United States, even as it seeks to sustain its long-standing partnership with Russia.

India's Strategic Balancing Act: Navigating Relations with Russia and the U.S.

As Vladimir Putin’s arrival in New Delhi marks a significant moment in Russia-India relations, it underscores India’s ongoing challenge in maintaining a delicate diplomatic balance. India, a historical ally of Russia, is simultaneously working to expand ties with the United States, a global competitor of Moscow. This balancing act is particularly sensitive given the geopolitical dynamics in the region and global economic pressures.

India's strategic priorities have never been more complex. The country is poised to acquire advanced Russian defense systems, such as the Su-57 fighter jet, which are essential for its security against Pakistan and China. However, India is also negotiating with the U.S. for a critical trade agreement to mitigate the impact of 50% tariffs imposed by Washington. This makes the upcoming discussions with Putin particularly challenging, as India tries to preserve its relationship with Russia without jeopardizing its engagement with the U.S.

In recent months, India has already made steps to ease tensions with Washington, including reducing Russian oil imports and agreeing to purchase liquefied petroleum gas from the U.S. However, these measures might not be enough to smooth over the existing friction, especially as defense deals and military support from Russia remain pivotal for India’s security needs. The discussions during Putin’s visit will likely be a test for India’s diplomatic flexibility, as it seeks to secure vital defense supplies while also signaling its intent to remain an independent power with diverse strategic options.

The challenge for India lies in maintaining its historic ties with Russia, a relationship rooted in Cold War-era alignments, while adapting to the evolving global landscape. As the U.S. and Russia engage in heightened geopolitical rivalry, India’s role as a swing state becomes more critical. The ability to balance these two global powers will define India’s future in global geopolitics and set the stage for a new phase of Indo-Pacific diplomacy.

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• A trade deal with Washington and a warm welcome for Putin: Can India have it both ways?