Expert warns of upcoming extreme cold in US region: 'Temperatures dropping sooner than ever'

Winter has barely started, yet several cities are already confronting harsh conditions. A surge of Arctic air this week could push temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below the seasonal average across the central and eastern United States.

Climatologist Judah Cohen from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology told USA Today in late November that early December's chill is likely just a "preview," with the most severe cold expected in mid-December. He also noted on social media that "the largest region likely to experience extreme cold stretches from the Canadian Plains to the U.S. East Coast in the third week of December."

As polar air moves south into the northern plains and Great Lakes, a winter storm warning has been issued for parts of Michigans Upper Peninsula. Snowfall could reach up to a foot by Thursday afternoon. The frigid air passing over the relatively warmer waters of the Great Lakes is expected to generate moderate to heavy snow in downwind areas. The National Weather Service in Marquette warned that "visibilities may fall below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow," making travel hazardous, particularly during Thursday morning commutes.

Marquette is among several cities already facing "severe" to "extreme" winter conditions, according to the Midwest Regional Climate Center. These rankings are the two highest levels on the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI), which measures the intensity and persistence of cold, snowfall, and snow cover. Cities from Chicago in the north to Asheville in the south are experiencing harsh winters, while New York City currently registers an "average" season, in category three out of five. However, conditions could worsen as Arctic air moves into the Northeast by weeks end. Forecasters warn that record-low temperatures in Bridgeport and at LaGuardia and JFK airports "may be threatened on Friday," with potential for record cold daytime highs as well.

This weeks Arctic outbreak stems from a lobe of the polar vortex dipping south into the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains that the Arctic polar vortex is a strong westerly wind band in the stratosphere, about 10 to 30 miles above the North Pole, which traps a massive pool of frigid air. Scientists suggest that climate change may be making polar vortex disruptions more frequent. Steven Decker, director of the Meteorology Undergraduate Program at Rutgers University, stated that uneven global warming weakens the polar vortex and jet stream, making them more prone to displacement toward populated regions.

Decker emphasized that despite global warming, cold outbreaks remain possible whenever the polar vortex shifts south. Over the past week, the National Centers for Environmental Information reported 220 new cold records compared to 143 warm records. However, on a yearly basis, warm records significantly outnumber cold records. The NCEI's October global climate report projects a 99.9% likelihood that this year will rank among the five warmest on record globally.

Author: Harper Simmons