Expert warns of upcoming extreme cold in US region: 'Temperatures dropping sooner than ever'

Winter has barely started, yet several cities are already confronting harsh conditions. A surge of Arctic air this week could push temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below the seasonal average across the central and eastern United States.

Climatologist Judah Cohen from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology told USA Today in late November that early December's chill is likely just a "preview," with the most severe cold expected in mid-December. He also noted on social media that "the largest region likely to experience extreme cold stretches from the Canadian Plains to the U.S. East Coast in the third week of December."

As polar air moves south into the northern plains and Great Lakes, a winter storm warning has been issued for parts of Michigans Upper Peninsula. Snowfall could reach up to a foot by Thursday afternoon. The frigid air passing over the relatively warmer waters of the Great Lakes is expected to generate moderate to heavy snow in downwind areas. The National Weather Service in Marquette warned that "visibilities may fall below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow," making travel hazardous, particularly during Thursday morning commutes.

Marquette is among several cities already facing "severe" to "extreme" winter conditions, according to the Midwest Regional Climate Center. These rankings are the two highest levels on the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI), which measures the intensity and persistence of cold, snowfall, and snow cover. Cities from Chicago in the north to Asheville in the south are experiencing harsh winters, while New York City currently registers an "average" season, in category three out of five. However, conditions could worsen as Arctic air moves into the Northeast by weeks end. Forecasters warn that record-low temperatures in Bridgeport and at LaGuardia and JFK airports "may be threatened on Friday," with potential for record cold daytime highs as well.

This weeks Arctic outbreak stems from a lobe of the polar vortex dipping south into the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains that the Arctic polar vortex is a strong westerly wind band in the stratosphere, about 10 to 30 miles above the North Pole, which traps a massive pool of frigid air. Scientists suggest that climate change may be making polar vortex disruptions more frequent. Steven Decker, director of the Meteorology Undergraduate Program at Rutgers University, stated that uneven global warming weakens the polar vortex and jet stream, making them more prone to displacement toward populated regions.

Decker emphasized that despite global warming, cold outbreaks remain possible whenever the polar vortex shifts south. Over the past week, the National Centers for Environmental Information reported 220 new cold records compared to 143 warm records. However, on a yearly basis, warm records significantly outnumber cold records. The NCEI's October global climate report projects a 99.9% likelihood that this year will rank among the five warmest on record globally.

Commentary: The Surge of Arctic Air and Its Potential Impact

The ongoing Arctic outbreak is a reminder of the severe winter conditions that can strike unexpectedly, even as winter has just begun. While climatologists anticipated cold temperatures, the scale and speed at which this Arctic air has descended is alarming, with temperatures expected to plummet 15 to 25 degrees below seasonal averages across central and eastern U.S. regions. Early December's chill is reportedly only a precursor to even harsher conditions expected in mid-December, according to MIT climatologist Judah Cohen. This suggests that the worst may still be ahead, and communities must prepare for a prolonged period of extreme cold.

As polar air moves south, cities like Marquette and parts of Michigan's Upper Peninsula are already grappling with severe winter weather. Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) rankings indicate that these regions are facing extreme conditions, with snowfall reaching up to a foot and hazardous travel conditions due to blowing snow and low visibility. The situation underscores the importance of monitoring local weather advisories and exercising caution, especially during early morning commutes.

However, the cold outbreak is not isolated to the Midwest. The Northeast could also see record-low temperatures by the end of the week, particularly at major airports in Bridgeport, LaGuardia, and JFK. While cities like New York are currently experiencing average conditions, the impending Arctic push could lead to unexpected cold snaps and disrupt daily life, potentially setting new records for cold daytime highs.

In understanding this phenomenon, it’s important to note that the Arctic vortex is responsible for this mass of frigid air moving southward. As highlighted by meteorologists, the weakening of the polar vortex due to global warming has made such disruptions more frequent, increasing the likelihood of extreme cold spells even as the planet warms overall. Despite the dominant trend of global warming, these cold outbreaks remind us that regional weather patterns remain unpredictable and can still bring severe conditions.

The significance of these events is not only in the immediate impact on weather but in the longer-term consequences for infrastructure, energy demand, and even public health. With more frequent disruptions to the polar vortex, communities must continue to adapt to the changing climate and be prepared for the unpredictable nature of winter storms in the years to come.

Sources:

• Expert issues warning as US region set to be blasted by 'most likely extreme cold on Earth': 'Being released earlier and earlier'