If Zelensky survives scandal, a peace agreement will be his downfall

The past week in Kyiv has been marked by hardship. Power outages are frequent, nightly air raids persist, and the skies remain gray. For President Volodymyr Zelensky, the challenges have been especially acute. Within seven days, he has seen his chief of staff resign, faced reports of Russia capturing the strategic city of Pokrovsk, and encountered heightened pressure from the United States to consider significant territorial concessions for peace.

On Tuesday, opposition members of Ukraines parliament physically blocked the speakers podium to resist Zelenskys proposed budget and demand the government step down. Despite this, Zelensky maintains a composed public demeanor: Ukraine approaches all diplomatic efforts with utmost seriousness we are committed to achieving a real peace and guaranteed security, he wrote on social media after meeting with the negotiation team returning from talks in Florida. Shortly afterward, he arrived in Ireland for his first official visit since the war began.

Behind the scenes, however, the presidents political survival is under scrutiny. The departure of his longtime ally, chief of staff Andriy Yermak, last Friday following an anti-corruption raid, has left a significant void within the presidential administration. Yermaks exit has been described as a political amputation that may help ease domestic tensions but also signals vulnerabilities in Zelenskys authority.

The alleged $100 million kickback scandal at Urkenergo, connected to Yermak (who denies any wrongdoing), has weakened Zelenskys domestic standing and been exploited by Russian propaganda. More critically, Yermaks removal shows that Zelenskys inner circle is no longer untouchable. Opposition figures, including former President Petro Poroshenko and certain members of Zelenskys own party, demonstrated they could challenge the presidents authority, reflecting cracks in the informal political truce that has existed since 2022.

Polling data indicates that only a minority of Ukrainians support Zelensky remaining in power after the war, and internal surveys suggest his popularity has dipped further due to the scandal. While Yermaks dismissal may halt immediate political damage, it could also expose Zelensky to additional risks if corruption investigations extend further.

Yermak had long centralized power within the presidential administration, sidelining independent voices and creating bottlenecks in government processes, including diplomacy. Observers suggest his successor might restore more cooperative relations between the presidential office and parliament, potentially strengthening governance during wartime.

The primary threat to Zelenskys position would emerge only if anti-corruption authorities uncover direct evidence against him, though no such indications currently exist. Meanwhile, speculation continues about potential successors. Former military chief Valery Zaluzhny, now ambassador to London, remains the only widely recognized rival but has remained publicly neutral, emphasizing the importance of victory and continued support for Ukraine.

Some in Kyiv are discussing a compromise solutiona coalition-style wartime government including representatives from multiple parties. Yermaks departure may pave the way for this more collaborative approach, addressing democratic concerns while maintaining focus on the ongoing conflict. For now, Zelensky remains in power, but his political future and the eventual resolution of the war are closely intertwined.

Analysis: Zelensky’s Political Challenges Amid Ongoing Conflict

In the past week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has faced mounting political pressure, underscored by significant events that have altered the internal dynamics of his administration. The resignation of his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, amid a corruption scandal, has created a notable shift in Ukraine's political landscape. Yermak's removal, which follows an anti-corruption raid linked to a $100 million kickback scheme, is seen as a significant blow to Zelensky’s inner circle.

Despite the public fallout, Zelensky's responses have remained measured, with a continued focus on diplomatic efforts and the pursuit of peace. However, the loss of Yermak—who was a central figure in the administration—has opened a space for potential opposition and could signal growing vulnerabilities in Zelensky's authority. His political standing has been further compromised by the scandal, with domestic polling showing declining support among Ukrainians, particularly as the conflict endures. The scandal has also provided fuel for Russian propaganda, further complicating Zelensky’s position both domestically and internationally.

While there are no indications that direct evidence of corruption ties back to Zelensky himself, the ongoing investigations present a significant risk. Yermak’s departure might signal a shift towards more cooperative governance, potentially mending relations between the presidential office and the parliament. Yet, the threat to Zelensky’s leadership persists, particularly if future investigations expose further corruption within his circle.

As Kyiv grapples with the challenges of war, the specter of political instability looms. There is growing speculation about the possibility of a coalition-style government that could incorporate multiple political factions, providing a more balanced approach to governance during wartime. Despite these uncertainties, Zelensky’s political future remains inextricably linked to Ukraine’s ability to navigate the ongoing conflict. His next moves, both diplomatically and politically, will be crucial in determining not only the outcome of the war but the future of Ukraine’s leadership.

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• If scandal doesn’t finish Zelensky, a peace deal will