Is Scottish Labour on the verge of a rebellion in Westminster?

Political troubles have surrounded Sir Keir Starmer recently, with a string of leaks, government U-turns, and a turbulent Budget season prompting speculation about a leadership challenge. Reports this week suggest that a few Scottish Labour MPs are concerned that the party could suffer heavy losses in the upcoming Scottish Parliament elections in May due to the prime minister's unpopularity.

In comments made anonymously to the press, these MPs expressed fear that Labour might be "slaughtered" at the polls. Another Scottish Labour MP, speaking to a different outlet, dismissed the idea of a plot against Starmer as nonsense, though they did acknowledge the prime minister's low popularity in rather vivid terms.

Scottish Labour MPs meet regularly, roughly every two weeks. Their last gathering coincided with the Budget day, meaning they have not formally addressed the recent wave of negative media coverage. One MP indicated that colleagues would be frustrated once discussions took place, emphasizing that exaggerating the threat of a leadership revolt was unhelpful.

Despite tensions, there have been positive developments, such as the lifting of the two-child benefit cap, which has been welcomed by Scottish MPs. However, dissatisfaction with the government's performance persists. Some MPs described the prime minister as "terrible" and the handling of recent briefings as "incompetent" and "mind-blowingly stupid."

Historically, Labour MPs in Scotland have never formally challenged a sitting Labour prime minister. This contrasts with the Conservative Party, which has conducted votes of confidence for two of its last three leaders. Timing is also a factor: launching a leadership challenge before the Scottish elections is considered politically unwise by insiders.

Triggering a Labour leadership contest requires the backing of 80 MPs, and the incumbent leader automatically appears on the ballot. Starmer's allies have indicated he would actively defend his position. While there are Scottish Labour MPs who favor a future leadership change, their influence in any potential revolt is limited, particularly as 15 of the 37 Scottish MPs hold front bench positions.

The strategic focus of Scottish Labour is on maximizing its electoral chances in May without making Starmer a central figure in the campaign. Senior party members argue that every moment spent addressing Westminster politics detracts from criticizing the SNP's record in government. As one insider explained, framing the election around Starmer would be damaging, while focusing on the SNPs 19-year governance record enhances Labours prospects.

Although the party seeks to minimize the prime ministers role in campaigning, concern remains about public perception ahead of the election. Scottish Labour MPs note that their party has previously exceeded expectations, citing a narrow by-election victory in Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse, which they attribute to strong grassroots campaigning and organizational efficiency.

Nevertheless, scaling that success to 73 constituencies in the upcoming Scottish Parliament election presents a much greater challenge. One MP acknowledged that local by-elections depend on candidates and local issues, while national elections hinge on the overall political climatea climate that currently presents mixed signals for Labour.

Author: Noah Whitman