Less than 10 porpoises remain. Is it possible to save the species?

The vaquita, a diminutive porpoise native to the northern Gulf of California, holds the grim title of the worlds most endangered marine mammal. Nicknamed the pandas of the sea due to their distinctive eye rings and dark lips, vaquita numbers have plummeted by 98% over the past three decades. Current estimates suggest that fewer than 10 individuals remain as of October 2025.

Illegal gillnet fishing, primarily targeting the critically endangered totoaba fish, has been the leading cause of this decline. Totoaba swim bladders are highly prized in China, fetching prices up to $10,000 each, and vaquitas are often unintentionally caught in these nets as bycatch. Despite the Mexican government banning totoaba fishing in 1975 and outlawing gillnets in the Upper Gulf of California in 2017, the destructive practice continues. Both species are protected under Appendix I of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), yet enforcement challenges remain.

In March 2025, Mexican authorities confiscated more than 9 kilometers of illegal gillnets containing 72 dead totoaba. Conservationists are urgently seeking solutions as the species teeters on the brink of extinction. At the recent CITES conference in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Mexicos protection measures for the vaquita were under review.

Lorenzo Rojas Bracho, a veteran Mexican scientist who has spent over 30 years on vaquita conservation, emphasizes the need for alternative, vaquita-safe fishing gear. He explained that eliminating bycatch requires removing gillnets entirely, a goal that has yet to be achieved. A 2023 analysis by Rojas Bracho revealed that gillnets remain widely used for shrimp and fish in the Upper Gulf, with limited progress toward adopting safer alternatives. High costs, lower efficiency, and insufficient enforcement hinder their adoption. Compensation and community support are crucial for a successful transition.

Some measures have shown localized success, such as installing concrete blocks on the seafloor to trap illegal gillnets and establishing a 225-square-kilometer zero tolerance no-fishing zone. However, vaquitas frequently inhabit areas beyond these zones, meaning these strategies alone cannot guarantee recovery.

Despite the challenges, optimism exists under Mexicos new administration, inaugurated in 2024, which has prioritized the vaquita issue. Rojas Bracho notes early government meetings indicate strong political will, but he stresses urgency given the extremely low population.

Reducing demand for totoaba products abroad is another critical strategy. Paola Mosig Reidl from Traffic, an NGO addressing wildlife trade, highlights efforts in China to discourage consumption of illegal totoaba swim bladders. Coordinated international enforcement involving Mexico, China, and the U.S. is essential to disrupt organized crime networks driving the trade.

Conservation farming of totoaba has been proposed as a way to limit illegal fishing, with aquaculture operations in Mexico already in place. However, careful regulation and traceability are vital to prevent wild-caught totoaba from entering the market under the guise of farmed fish.

Global frameworks also play a supportive role. In 2023, CITES temporarily suspended Mexicos wildlife trade due to insufficient measures against illegal totoaba fishing. The International Whaling Commission issued its first-ever extinction alert for the vaquita, aiming to spur action and raise awareness.

Rojas Bracho notes that in the past two years, vaquita numbers have stabilized, though uncertainty remains. The identification of juveniles and calves in recent surveys provides hope that the species may still recover. Seeing healthy animals producing calves is a positive sign, he said.

The international and local conservation efforts, combined with political will and enforcement, offer the vaquita a fragile but vital chance of survival.

Analysis: The Vaquita’s Last Stand

From my perspective, the situation of the vaquita is a stark illustration of how quickly human activity can push a species to the edge of extinction. With fewer than 10 individuals estimated to remain as of October 2025, the margin for error is vanishingly small. The primary threat—illegal gillnet fishing for totoaba—continues despite decades of legal protections, highlighting the limits of regulation without effective enforcement.

There are glimmers of progress. Localized interventions, such as zero-tolerance zones and seafloor gillnet traps, show that targeted strategies can reduce immediate threats. Additionally, recent sightings of calves and juveniles suggest that the species retains some reproductive potential. Yet, these measures alone are insufficient; vaquitas move beyond protected areas, and gillnets remain prevalent in shrimp and fish fisheries.

The path forward requires a multifaceted approach: complete elimination of gillnets in vaquita habitats, adoption of vaquita-safe fishing gear supported by compensation programs, and international collaboration to curb demand for totoaba products. Conservation farming of totoaba, if carefully regulated, could provide an alternative to illegal harvesting. Political will under Mexico’s new administration and coordinated global enforcement are essential to translate potential into survival.

Ultimately, the vaquita’s fate hinges on immediate, decisive action. The fragile stability in population numbers is encouraging, but without intensified measures, the “panda of the sea” may vanish within a single generation. This case underscores the urgency of aligning local practices, national policy, and global trade regulations to prevent irreversible biodiversity loss.

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• Fewer than 10 of these porpoises are left. Can the species be saved?