Pakistan proposes creation of new South Asian alliance to exclude India: Can it succeed?

Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar has suggested expanding a recent trilateral initiative with Bangladesh and China to include other regional countries. Speaking at the Islamabad Conclave, Dar emphasized Pakistans preference for cooperation over confrontation, signaling an effort to establish a new South Asian bloc amid rising tensions with India.

The initiative could serve as an alternative to the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which has struggled in recent years due to India-Pakistan disputes. In June, diplomats from China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh met to discuss regional stability, economic development, and improving living standards, clarifying that their cooperation was not aimed at any third party.

Dars comments come amid escalating friction in the region. Pakistan and India recently engaged in a brief four-day air conflict in May. Meanwhile, relations between Bangladesh and India have also deteriorated since former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled to India last year after being ousted in a popular uprising. India has not returned Hasina, who was later sentenced to death in absentia for crimes against humanity.

Details of Pakistans Proposal

Deputy Prime Minister Dar, also Pakistans foreign minister, explained that the trilateral initiative aims to foster mutual collaboration in shared areas of interest and could be expanded and duplicated to include more nations and regions. He suggested that issue-specific groups could form around economy, technology, and connectivity, allowing regional development to proceed without being hindered by India.

Dar highlighted the stalled India-Pakistan dialogue, which has been inactive for over 11 years, noting that other regional states have also experienced fluctuating relations with India. He envisioned a South Asia where cooperation replaces divisions, economies grow synergistically, disputes are peacefully resolved, and peace is upheld with dignity.

Academic Rabia Akhtar described the plan as more aspirational than operational at this stage but noted it indicates Pakistans intent to diversify regional cooperation mechanisms while SAARC remains largely inactive.

Background on SAARC

SAARC, founded in 1985, originally included Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, with Afghanistan joining in 2007. Its mission is to enhance welfare, economic growth, and cultural development in South Asia. However, India-Pakistan conflicts have hindered progress, including the indefinite postponement of the 2016 SAARC summit in Islamabad.

Trade among SAARC nations remains limited, at only around 5% of total regional commerce, compared with 25% in ASEAN. South Asian countries could potentially triple trade volumes if barriers were reduced. India-Pakistan trade is especially weak, officially around $1.2 billion by 2024, though unofficial trade is higher. Regional connectivity issues and blocked transport agreements have further limited cooperation.

While bilateral and trilateral agreements like BBIN and BIMSTEC exist, analysts suggest such arrangements dominate due to clearer incentives and more achievable outcomes than broader regional multilateralism.

Challenges and Prospects

Akhtar noted that Pakistans proposal faces two main challenges: whether smaller, issue-focused groupings are seen as valuable, and whether participation would provoke political repercussions with India. She expects limited interest from countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives, and Bhutan in areas such as connectivity, climate adaptation, and economic resilience.

Analyst Farwa Aamer views Pakistans proposal as strategically sound. Pakistan has maintained strong relations with China while improving ties with the United States and the Gulf, positioning itself to reassert influence in regional diplomacy and reclaim a central role in South Asian affairs.

Sources:

• Pakistan seeks new South Asian bloc to cut India out: Will it work?