Poll shows majority of EU citizens perceive 'high risk' of war with Russia

A recent survey conducted across nine European Union nations indicates that most citizens fear a significant possibility of war between their countries and Russia. The research, carried out by polling organization Cluster 17 and published in the French international affairs journal Le Grand Continent, reflects public concern over the ongoing conflict stemming from Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The study, which involved nearly 10,000 respondents from France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium, and the Netherlands, reveals that 51% of participants believe there is a "high" or "very high" risk of a future confrontation with Russia. The survey was conducted at the end of November with a minimum of 1,000 respondents from each country.

Perceptions of risk vary widely by country. In Poland, which shares borders with Russia and Belarus, 77% of people consider the threat serious. In contrast, only 54% of French respondents and 51% of Germans expressed similar concerns, while 65% of Italians viewed the risk as low or negligible.

The survey also examined attitudes toward potential conflict with other nations. A striking 81% of respondents across the nine countries felt there was little to no chance of war with China in the foreseeable future.

Concerns over national defense capabilities are prominent. Overall, 69% of those surveyed believe their countries would be "not at all" or "not likely" able to defend against Russian aggression. France, the only nuclear-armed nation in the survey, had the most optimistic outlook, with 44% believing their military is at least somewhat capable of defense. In contrast, large majorities in Belgium, Italy, and Portugal87%, 85%, and 85% respectivelyfelt their countries were unprepared.

Public opinion continues to view terrorism as the most immediate threat. Across all surveyed nations, 63% considered the risk of attacks by terrorist groups to be "high" or "very high."

Analysis: Rising Public Concern Over Russia in the EU

The latest survey results from Cluster 17 highlight a clear trend: European citizens remain deeply worried about the possibility of conflict with Russia. With 51% of respondents across nine EU nations considering the risk "high" or "very high," public sentiment reflects ongoing anxieties linked to the war in Ukraine.

Regional differences are notable. Polish citizens, sharing borders with Russia and Belarus, show the highest concern at 77%, while France and Germany report lower levels of fear, 54% and 51% respectively. Italy stands out with a majority viewing the risk as low or negligible. These disparities suggest that geographic proximity and historical context strongly influence perceptions of threat.

Confidence in national defense is limited. Only France, as a nuclear-armed state, shows a significant portion (44%) of citizens believing in their military's ability to defend against Russian aggression. Other nations, including Belgium, Italy, and Portugal, have populations largely convinced of their unpreparedness.

Meanwhile, concerns over terrorism remain prevalent, with 63% rating it as a high or very high threat. This underscores that while the risk from Russia dominates headlines, immediate security fears continue to shape public opinion across the EU.

Sources:

• Most EU citizens see 'high risk' of war with Russia: poll