Putin considers US plan as potential foundation for Ukraine deal but warns of using force to take land if Kyiv refuses to withdraw

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that a US proposal aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine could serve as a foundation for future agreements, while reiterating threats to seize additional areas by force if Kyiv does not withdraw.

During a press briefing in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on Thursday, Putin confirmed that Moscow is anticipating a visit from a US delegation led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff early next week and expressed readiness for serious discussions.

However, the likelihood of rapid progress seems limited, as Putin reiterated that the war would only conclude once Ukrainian forces retreat from the territories they currently occupy.

If they refuse to withdraw, we will accomplish this through military action, the Russian leader warned.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that his delegation will meet with US officials later this week to discuss points outlined in Geneva. In his nightly video address, Zelensky mentioned that upcoming negotiations will be significant not only for the delegation but also for him personally, without providing additional details.

Russia currently controls roughly 20% of internationally recognized Ukrainian territory, including nearly all of the Luhansk region and parts of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Moscow is demanding that Ukraine cede these four regions, which it has annexed but not fully taken.

Recent weeks have seen some Russian advances along the eastern Ukrainian front, particularly near the city of Pokrovsk. Yet, the US-based Institute for the Study of War reported on Thursday that current Russian progress does not guarantee a military victory or an imminent capture of the remainder of Donetsk Oblast.

Notably, the regions Russia is targeting include a heavily fortified zone considered critical for Ukrainian defense. Kyiv and its European allies have emphasized that territorial concessions are a red line.

Putins comments on Thursday signaled strong resistance to any compromise, despite US officials highlighting significant progress in their peace efforts. This follows revisions to a 28-point US-drafted peace plan, initially reflecting Russian demands, which were opposed by Ukrainian and European authorities.

The original proposal included requirements for Ukraine to downsize its military and remain outside NATO. Putin noted that Witkoffs upcoming visit will likely address the revised draft, the details of which remain undisclosed. He stated that the plan could serve as a basis for future agreements, adding, It would be inappropriate to discuss final agreements at this stage.

Analysis: Limited Prospects for Immediate Peace in Ukraine

The recent statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin about a potential US-proposed peace agreement in Ukraine highlights the deepening complexities of the ongoing conflict. Putin’s comments suggest a readiness for talks, yet his firm stance on territorial demands and the threat of military action if Ukraine does not withdraw from contested regions leave little room for optimism regarding a swift resolution.

Putin’s acknowledgment that the US-proposed plan could form the basis for future agreements, while cautiously welcomed, appears tempered by Moscow's continued insistence on the retreat of Ukrainian forces from the territories it controls. The Russian leader’s repeated assertion that military action would follow should Ukraine refuse to comply signals a strong unwillingness to compromise on key territorial issues. This stance remains a major obstacle to any meaningful progress toward peace.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s upcoming meeting with US officials to discuss points outlined in Geneva, though significant, may not bring the breakthrough needed to shift the balance of the conflict. With Russia controlling roughly 20% of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory, including vital regions such as Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia, the situation on the ground remains volatile. Moscow’s demands for territorial concessions continue to clash with Ukraine’s insistence on maintaining its territorial integrity, particularly in the face of Russia’s strategic advances.

The conflicting interests of the involved parties—Russia, Ukraine, the US, and their respective allies—are compounded by the latest developments. While the US has suggested progress in its peace efforts, including a revised peace proposal, it’s clear that Moscow is not yet prepared to accept the terms that would ensure a lasting peace. The road to a negotiated settlement appears long, with entrenched positions and military realities further complicating any potential breakthrough.

In conclusion, while diplomatic talks and proposals continue, the likelihood of an immediate cessation of hostilities remains low. The standoff over territorial control, particularly in the east, continues to dominate the discourse, and any meaningful resolution will require significant shifts in the positions of both Russia and Ukraine. Until then, the conflict will likely persist, with only gradual and limited progress towards a sustainable peace agreement.

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• Putin says US plan could be ‘basis’ of a Ukraine deal but threatens to take land by force if Kyiv doesn’t withdraw