Putin sends Trump's envoys packing, aiming for a geopolitical victory

Vladimir Putin appears uninterested in any immediate agreement, savoring the position of being courted for one. A lengthy meeting at the Kremlin between U.S. President Donald Trumps envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, with the Russian leader produced little visible progress.

From Putins perspective, the conflict in Ukraine is a continuation of his broader ambition: restoring Russias military prestige in Europe following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. What began as a hope for a quick, decisive campaign has devolved into a prolonged and costly struggle. Initially, Russian forces faced setbacks as Ukraine, bolstered by U.S. and NATO support, secured victories once deemed improbable.

However, the potential for a second Trump term introduced a different dynamic, as his inclination toward peace and selective sympathy for Putin offered Moscow a diplomatic opening. Unlike Western leaders, Putin faces no electoral constraints, with his tenure limited only by time.

Hearing Trump describe Ukraine as not his war and express reluctance to commit resources reinforces for Putin the perception of U.S. disengagement. This, in turn, presents a rare historical opportunity: the United States seeking Russias cooperation for a resolution. The longer the negotiation drags on, the more it seems Moscow can extract strategic benefit.

During the Kremlin discussions, Putins aides presented a 27-point plan along with four additional documents, potentially complicating Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskys prior 20-point framework. Present at the talks were presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev and foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, meeting with Trumps representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

While some diplomacy continues quietly, Zelenskys team is left without tangible progress. Trumps Thanksgiving timeline for a rapid deal now appears unrealistic, leaving Ukraine facing continued uncertainty. The unpredictability of U.S. policyfrom harsh sanctions to occasional alignment with Russian talking pointshas affected Ukrainian morale, undermining their prolonged resilience.

Putins approach is pragmatic and long-term, aiming to alter the global balance of power and diminish U.S. influence. Although he faces domestic pressures such as manpower constraints and budget limits, he operates without the interruptions of elections or legal probes, allowing him to maintain a war-ready economy and military. Prolonging the conflict strengthens his grip on power.

For Trump, achieving a swift peace is paramount, but his methodspressuring allies to make concessionsmisread the situation. Putin is not negotiating a commercial deal; he is consolidating military and geopolitical gains. Any attempt to force a quick resolution is unlikely to sway him.

The months ahead suggest a slow, costly military progression favoring Russia, with Ukraine continuing to grapple with internal and external challenges. Putin, meanwhile, appears to relish both the battlefield advances and the diplomatic spectacle of the U.S. actively seeking an agreement, often through intermediaries like Kushner and Witkoff. As a result, a lasting peace seems distant, while Moscow consolidates incremental strategic victories.

Author: Caleb Jennings