Trump promises to assist in stopping the conflict in Sudan. Will his efforts make a difference?

President Donald Trump has vowed to use the authority of the presidency to bring an immediate stop to the ongoing war in Sudan, a conflict that has displaced nearly 12 million people, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Experts cautiously welcomed the announcement, noting that US involvement could help de-escalate fighting, though they emphasized that achieving a lasting resolution will be challenging.

Although Trump had previously stated that ending the war was not a priority for him, he changed course following a personal appeal from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Speaking alongside the Saudi leader in Washington, DC, Trump expressed his intent to address the situation in Sudan, recognizing its significance to regional stakeholders.

The conflict, now over two years old, pits the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Tens of thousands have died, and the crisis is considered the largest humanitarian disaster globally. The US has accused both factions of war crimes, and the Biden administration has formally labeled RSF actions as genocidal.

The United States, alongside Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, has long sought to mediate an end to the conflict through the so-called Quad coalition. Under Trump, Special Envoy Massad Boulos, a close ally, led these efforts, although the White House had previously refrained from direct involvement. Trump's recent personal commitment has raised cautious optimism among analysts.

Cameron Hudson, a former National Security Council director for African Affairs, noted that Trump is uniquely positioned to achieve important short-term objectives, even if a comprehensive peace remains elusive. Yet, progress is uncertain, with Sudanese leadership rejecting ceasefire proposals and alleging mediator bias.

Outside influence continues to shape the conflict. Observers have called on the US to exert more pressure on the UAE, accused of supplying weapons to the RSFa charge the UAE denies. Analysts point out that Sudan has become a stage for broader regional interests, complicating direct US intervention.

Questions remain regarding Trumps willingness to pressure allies like the UAE, especially given US strategic interests in the region and the Trump family's business connections. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio has indicated that efforts are being made to curb arms support to the RSF, some experts suggest Trumps strongest leverage may lie with external actors rather than the warring Sudanese factions themselves.

Experts emphasize that while Trump may excel at negotiating among international powers, direct engagement with Sudanese political complexities will be more challenging. Nonetheless, his public commitment is seen as encouraging by some former diplomats, who argue that demonstrating presidential concern may motivate the Quad countries to take the crisis more seriously.

Security specialists warn that even with a ceasefire, the ethnic and tribal dimensions of the war, alongside widespread atrocities, mean that deep-seated trauma and humanitarian needs must be addressed to prevent continued suffering.

Commentary: The Road to Peace in Sudan – Challenges Ahead

President Donald Trump's recent pledge to leverage his presidential authority to end the ongoing war in Sudan marks a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy. The conflict, now in its third year, has caused catastrophic humanitarian damage, displacing millions and leading to tens of thousands of deaths. While his announcement has been cautiously welcomed by experts, the complexity of the situation suggests that lasting peace may remain elusive despite international efforts.

The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has become not just a regional issue but a flashpoint for broader geopolitical tensions, involving key players such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Trump's move to prioritize Sudan, especially after an appeal from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, adds a new layer to the ongoing diplomatic efforts. However, this shift raises questions about the true extent of U.S. influence, particularly with regards to its relationships with regional allies like the UAE, which has been accused of arming the RSF.

Experts argue that while Trump's involvement could lead to short-term progress, such as securing temporary ceasefires or reducing active combat, the deeper issues at play—ethnic divisions, war crimes, and entrenched political interests—cannot be easily addressed. The leadership in Sudan has shown little interest in compromises, and the involvement of external powers with conflicting interests only complicates the path to peace.

One of the key challenges remains the role of the UAE and its support for the RSF. While the UAE denies any wrongdoing, analysts stress that U.S. pressure on its allies, especially in terms of halting arms shipments, may be necessary to bring about meaningful change. However, balancing these diplomatic concerns with broader U.S. strategic interests in the Middle East, particularly economic and security ties to the UAE, presents a difficult diplomatic tightrope for Trump and his administration.

Ultimately, the question remains whether Trump's efforts can generate the necessary international consensus to achieve a lasting ceasefire. While his public commitment may motivate key stakeholders like the Quad countries to intensify their involvement, it remains unclear whether such efforts will be sufficient to resolve the deeply-rooted ethnic and tribal tensions at the heart of Sudan’s crisis. Until those underlying issues are addressed, the road to peace will remain fraught with challenges.

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• Trump has pledged to help end the fighting in Sudan. Will it be enough?