Will Israel be able to avoid the next war with Hezbollah through new diplomatic efforts with Lebanon?

Lebanon faces a critical challenge in determining whether it can effectively proceed with disarming Hezbollah. At the same time, Israel must clarify what it means by "disarmament." Recent developments suggest that Israel and Lebanon might be working toward a solution to avert war between the IDF and Hezbollah. A year after the November ceasefire, there is growing concern that if Hezbollah does not disarm, tensions could escalate into conflict by 2026. The United States is likely keen to avoid further turmoil in the region, and Israel is well aware that its population is weary of war. Meanwhile, Hezbollah seeks to avoid conflict and preserve its existence.

Despite the potential for war, a recent diplomatic meeting on the border signals a possibility of prevention. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office reported that a meeting was held in Naqoura, Lebanon, under the direction of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as part of an ongoing security dialogue between the US, Israel, and Lebanon. The meeting included the US presidents adviser on Lebanon, Morgan Ortagus, and key Lebanese civilian representatives. According to the Prime Minister's Office, the atmosphere was positive, and agreements were made to explore potential economic cooperation between Israel and Lebanon. However, Israel made it clear that Hezbollah's disarmament is a non-negotiable condition, regardless of any economic initiatives.

Follow-up discussions are planned. The meeting at the UN headquarters in Naqoura is seen as a crucial step forward, although one might question why such talks had not occurred earlier. Both Israel and Lebanon have been cautious in their approach, with Israeli media often suggesting that war may be imminent. Meanwhile, Lebanon remains in high spirits following the recent visit of the pope. The Lebanese delegation at the talks was led by former Lebanese Ambassador to the US, Simon Karam.

Lebanon remains apprehensive that Israel might still conduct strikes, despite the ongoing discussions. Over the past year, Israel has targeted Hezbollah positions numerous times. The Lebanese newspaper Al Joumhouria raised the important question: "Does this mean we have overcome the threat of war?" While there is cautious optimism, Jerusalem must carefully evaluate its decisions against the broader geopolitical situation.

The US has urged Israel to de-escalate tensions with Syria and has been pushing for the next phase of the Gaza deal, which involves the return of the remaining hostages from Gaza. The fact that nearly all hostages have been released since the October 13 ceasefire is significant. In this context, the talks in Lebanon mark a notable milestone, even though it took a year to reach this point. Lebanon must now assess whether it can proceed with disarming Hezbollah, and Israel must clarify its position on disarmament. Without a clear understanding, the threat of war will remain a lingering concern.

Author: Jackson Miller