Gates says aid cuts will reverse progress and lead to an increase in child deaths this year

LONDON, Dec 4 The Gates Foundation has warned that around 200,000 additional children are expected to die before reaching their fifth birthday in 2025 compared to 2024, as reductions in international aid threaten decades of progress in child health. The foundation projects that child deaths will increase from roughly 4.6 million in 2024 to 4.8 million this year, marking the first rise in preventable child fatalities this century. Since 2000, the number of child deaths had been nearly halved.

"For many years, the global community steadily reduced child mortality. Now, rising challenges are causing that progress to reverse," said Bill Gates, chair of the foundation, in a foreword to the latest Goalkeepers report. The annual report monitors the United Nations sustainable development goals related to poverty reduction and health improvement. This years edition was delayed due to uncertainty in global health funding.

The decline in aid began with the United States earlier this year and has since extended to other major donors including the United Kingdom and Germany. Overall, global development assistance for health dropped by nearly 27% in 2025 compared with 2024, according to the report. Gates highlighted that these funding cuts are a primary reason for the setback in child mortality progress, alongside factors such as growing national debt and fragile healthcare systems.

Earlier in the year, Gates cautioned that reduced aid would result in higher child fatalities. If these cuts continue, the report estimates an additional 12 to 16 million child deaths could occur by 2045, depending on future funding levels. For 2025, the rise in child deaths could bring numbers close to those recorded in 2023, the latest year for which World Health Organization data is available. The figures are based on models developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

The foundation is urging governments and individuals to increase efforts and invest in both innovative tools and proven interventions, such as vaccination programs and primary healthcare, to strengthen child health outcomes worldwide.

Author: Gavin Porter