How Japan's Prime Minister Damaged Relations with China

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi attended a debate in the upper house of the Diet on November 26, 2025, in Tokyo. Her recent remarks on Taiwan have generated significant controversy, breaking with Japans traditional strategy of strategic ambiguity regarding the island. Her statements crossed Beijings red line concerning Taiwan, which China regards as a breakaway province destined for reunification.

Takaichi explicitly supported interpretations of Japans 2015 security legislation that permit the Self-Defense Forces to operate overseas, even if Japan itself is not under attack. Her comments followed a meeting with the Taiwanese representative at the APEC Summit in South Korea, prompting a strong reaction from Beijing.

Prior to becoming Prime Minister, Takaichi maintained close ties with Taiwan, visiting in April and meeting President William Lai along with other senior officials. During that visit, she advocated forming a quasi-security alliance among like-minded Indo-Pacific democracies. She has also filled key positions within her Liberal Democratic Party leadership with pro-Taiwan figures.

Despite her intentions, her remarks have forced Japans diplomats into damage control and raised concerns in the business community regarding her grasp of leadership responsibilities. Chinas reaction has been particularly aggressive, with officials issuing harsh rhetoric, including an extreme threat from the Chinese consul-general in Osaka. This brand of wolf warrior diplomacy has strengthened Japans portrayal of China as an assertive regional power.

The current Japan-China tensions echo the late Shinzo Abes 2014 Davos speech warning about the risk of drifting into conflict. That period was marked by reciprocal diplomatic criticisms, with both sides accusing each other of aggressive behavior. Currently, China has applied economic pressure, restricting travel to Japan and reinstating bans on Japanese seafood imports, though it has restrained itself to avoid jeopardizing its reliance on Japanese investment, technology, and trade.

Beijing demands a retraction of Takaichis statements, but she has affirmed that she will continue to avoid commenting on hypothetical security scenarios in the future. This standoff risks economic damage for both nations, though Chinese leader Xi Jinping faces no electoral pressures unlike Takaichi.

The Japan-China dispute also affects regional dynamics, raising concerns among neighboring countries such as India, Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and South Korea. Chinas aggressive posture is unsettling for these nations, creating an Arc of Anxiety across the Indo-Pacific.

Speculation exists regarding Takaichis motivations, including her sleep deprivation and political calculations. By taking a firm stance on China, she reinforces her conservative base and strengthens her position to advocate for increased defense spending. Additionally, demonstrating resolve may have been intended to earn U.S. respect.

Japan is also wary of a potential G-2 scenario where U.S. and China agreements could bypass Japanese interests, undermining its role in a free and open Indo-Pacific. The recent Trump-Xi engagement, including planned visits in 2026 and a controversial Ukraine peace plan, has intensified Japanese concerns.

At stake is the security and freedom of 23 million Taiwanese citizens, most of whom oppose reunification with China due to the threat to democratic liberties. The evolving situation highlights that, despite shared democratic values, geopolitical maneuvering can often overshadow principled alignment.

Author: Sophia Brooks