Is India trustworthy for the West?

Handshakes, private dinners, and the unveiling of an Indian edition of Russias RT news channel are on the agenda as Prime Minister Narendra Modi navigates a delicate balance in welcoming Vladimir Putin to New Delhi for a state visit. Just two months ago, Modi hosted Sir Keir Starmer in Mumbai, a visit marked by diplomatic pleasantries. During the flight, Starmer was informed that Modi had recently sent Putin birthday wishes. Amid discussions over a free-trade agreement, Starmer playfully noted he would not do the same.

India has strengthened its ties with Moscow since the Ukraine conflict, largely by purchasing discounted Russian oil. However, this growing closeness has strained relations with Western nations. Putins visit aims to subtly and directly draw Modi closer, potentially creating a divide with the West.

Donald Trump previously imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports, bringing the total to 50%. During their working lunch at the presidential palace, Modi will need to carefully gauge the extent to which he can engage with Putin without risking further Western sanctions.

Putins objectives are straightforward. His visit symbolizes to the worldand especially Russias partners in the Global Souththat he remains influential despite international isolation. Traditional ceremonial gestures, such as laying a wreath at Mahatma Gandhis grave, are also planned.

Central to the discussions will be oil. Russia hopes to revive its oil exports to India, which surged from 2.5% before the war to 35% last year. While purchases have temporarily slowed due to tariffs and sanctions on Russian oil giants, Moscow insists the reduction is short-term and claims it has methods to bypass restrictions.

India continues to pursue a dual approach in defense procurement. In April, Modi signed a 5.5bn deal with France for 26 Rafale jets. October saw a 350m contract for missiles from Northern Ireland. Recent deals with the US have included Javelin and Excalibur missiles and a 708m agreement to maintain Indias Seahawk helicopter fleet. Simultaneously, a 1.5bn deal for leasing a Russian nuclear submarine demonstrates New Delhis effort to maintain balanced relations.

Approximately 60% of Indias military inventory originates from Russia, a legacy of Soviet-era ties. Equipment such as the Su-30MKI fleet, T-27 and T-90 tanks, and Kilo-class submarines depend on Moscow for maintenance. High on the agenda are the S-400 air defense system and BrahMos long-range missiles, with discussions likely to include potential S-500 acquisitions. However, India must avoid overreliance on Russia, or Western partnerships could be jeopardized, limiting access to advanced military technology.

The Su-57 fighter jet is expected to be discussed, though Indian analysts question its advantages, and New Delhi is cautious about purchasing unproven aircraft while maintaining French alternatives. Delivery delays also remain a concern, as India awaits two S-400 systems ordered in 2018, still delayed due to the Ukraine conflict.

Economic collaboration will likely take center stage, as Indias trade deficit with Russia jumped from 4.5bn in 2021 to 45bn last year. Modi aims to expand Indian exports to Russia, including pharmaceuticals and electronics, creating new opportunities amidst US tariffs.

For Modi, the summit demonstrates that India retains strategic flexibility. By showing the West that it has alternatives, India strengthens its bargaining position while signaling that it will not be forced to choose sides. With robust GDP growth of eight percent, India presents an attractive partner to both Eastern and Western powers.

Author: Noah Whitman