The rise of one-child families is driven by a 'fertility gap'

Scrolling through Facebook a few years ago, Natalie Johnston stumbled upon a group called "One And Done On The Fence," and she immediately felt a sense of relief. With a five-year-old daughter, Joanie, Natalie and her husband had decided against having a second childnot due to infertility, but because of the practical challenges of raising another. "You know you'd love a second child, but then you worry about dividing your time and resources," she explains. "Is it reasonable to choose one child because modern parenting demands so much?"

For Natalie, 35, modern parenting means family vacations with Joanie, helping her with homework, and enjoying weekday evenings together. But it also includes the complexities of expensive childcare and limited family support, making the decision about a second child difficult. "There's always the concern that you might regret it," she says.

Last year, the fertility rate in England and Wales dropped to 1.41 children per woman, the lowest in three consecutive years, according to the Office for National Statistics. One-child families have also increased, representing 44% of all families with dependent children, up from 42% in 2000. This trend is part of what the United Nations describes as a "global fertility slump," largely influenced by financial pressures. The UN emphasizes that people are not rejecting parenthoodthey are often unable to afford it due to high living costs, gender inequality, and economic uncertainty.

Bridging the Fertility Gap

Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has expressed the desire to support young people who want to start families, pointing to expanded childcare provisions as one solution. Nursery costs for children under two in England fell for the first time in 15 years, averaging 12,425, though costs in Scotland and Wales remain slightly higher. Despite these changes, studies show a gap between the number of children people want and the number they actually have. Dr. Paula Sheppard of Oxford University describes this as a "fertility gap": for every three children people desire, only two are born, largely due to delayed family planning associated with career and education opportunities.

Impact on Schools

The declining birthrate poses challenges for education. England has seen a drop of 150,000 pupils since 2019, with projections showing a further decrease of 400,000 by the decades end. Fewer students translate to reduced funding for schools, affecting resources and staffing. Some educators have also observed changes in child behavior, noting that only children may receive more attention and indulgence, though contemporary research disputes the notion that only children are spoiled or socially deficient.

Only Children and Academic Performance

Research consistently highlights educational benefits for only children. Dr. Adriean Mancillas explains that "resource dilution" plays a key role: parents of a single child can devote more time, attention, and financial resources to their education. Other theories, like "confluence theory," suggest that intellectual development is diluted in larger families, whereas "socialization theory" argues that siblings teach negotiation and sharing skills. Evidence largely supports the first two theories, showing that only children are academically advantaged and comparable socially to those with siblings.

Additionally, parents who have one child often have higher educational attainment themselves, which further promotes a focus on learning and achievement.

The Rise of One-Child Dynasties

Recent research indicates that adults who grew up as only children are increasingly choosing to have a single child themselves, creating "only-child dynasties." Contrary to stereotypes, these families do not produce spoiled or entitled children. Historical concerns, such as Chinas "little emperor" effect during its one-child policy, have not been substantiated in modern studies.

Changing Social Norms

Journalist Lauren Sandler observed in her 2013 book that single-child families often face social assumptions and questions about having more children. Historically, large families were a necessity for survival, but the industrial revolution shifted both the economic and social dynamics of parenting. Research shows only children are capable of forming strong, considerate relationships, countering the old narrative of selfishness.

Global Efforts and Personal Choices

Governments worldwide are introducing measures to encourage larger families, such as financial incentives and tax breaks, including a proposed $5,000 "baby bonus" in the US, zero income tax for families with multiple children in Poland, and tax exemptions for mothers in Hungary. Yet, ultimately, the decision to have one or more children remains deeply personal.

Natalie feels confident in her choice, proud of her daughter's accomplishments and personal growth. "You have to have a child for yourself," she says. "Its not about meeting social expectations."

Author: Noah Whitman