Venezuela’s Maduro lost two allies recently. Which regional partners remain?

Venezuelan President Nicols Maduro is experiencing increasing isolation after recent electoral losses in Honduras and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, coinciding with heightened U.S. naval activity in the Caribbean.

In Honduras, preliminary results from Sundays elections show Rixi Moncada, endorsed by leftist President Xiomara Castro, finishing a distant third in the presidential race. The contest has narrowed to two right-leaning candidates, Salvador Nasralla and Nasry Asfurarecently endorsed by former U.S. President Donald Trumpboth of whom have pledged to sever ties with the Venezuelan government.

Meanwhile, in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves, a longtime Maduro ally, lost his seat after nearly 25 years in office. Center-right politician Godwin Friday now leads the country, with his party securing 14 of 15 parliamentary seats. These developments reflect a broader regional trend moving away from Venezuelas populist Chavismo movement, originally founded by Hugo Chvez and continued under Maduro.

Even left-leaning governments in countries such as Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Colombia have reduced diplomatic engagement with Venezuela, particularly following the disputed 2024 Venezuelan elections in which Maduro was declared the winner amid allegations of irregularities.

Colombia, sharing a long border and drug-trafficking challenges with Venezuela, has seen its relationship with Caracas fluctuate. Initially, President Gustavo Petro restored diplomatic ties but now appears more cautious, acknowledging Maduros democratic deficiencies while denying U.S. claims of his involvement in drug trafficking.

Relations between Venezuela and Argentina have similarly deteriorated over time. Diplomatic and trade ties were strong under the left-wing Kirchner administrations but weakened during Mauricio Macris presidency and further under Javier Milei, who opposes socialist policies.

Other Latin American countries, including Ecuador, El Salvador, and Bolivia, have also shifted toward right-wing leadership, reducing support for Maduro. Relations with Brazil have alternated between cooperation and tension, depending on the political orientation of its government. Lula da Silvas current administration has restored ties, though not to previous levels.

If tensions in the Caribbean escalate, Venezuela will have few regional allies with the capacity to offer meaningful support. Cuba remains a loyal partner, with Foreign Minister Bruno Rodrguez affirming support for Maduros government but avoiding a direct response regarding potential U.S. intervention. Cubas economic struggles limit its ability to provide military aid.

Nicaragua, under Daniel Ortega, is another remaining ally, though the president has been largely silent amid rising tensions. He criticized U.S. actions in September, accusing Washington of attempting to control Venezuelan oil resources.

Despite increasing isolation, Maduro continues to assert resilience. Responding to U.S. pressure, he emphasized that Venezuelans have endured sanctions and economic hardships without yielding, underscoring his strategy of maintaining control and negotiating only when necessary. Diplomats indicate that Maduro is prepared to leverage every advantage, relying on the likelihood that U.S. public appetite for foreign intervention remains limited.

Author: Sophia Brooks