What are the next steps in the Gaza peace plan?

Talks on advancing the Gaza ceasefire are ongoing but have yet to achieve significant results, at a time when the truce remains highly unstable. The United States, together with Qatar and Egypt, arranged a ceasefire in Gaza that started on October 10, effectively pausing a two-year conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas. While the United Nations has endorsed President Donald Trump's peace proposal, progress on reconstruction and governance in the post-conflict period has been minimal.

Outline of the Plan

The ceasefire followed pressure from Trump on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the conflict triggered by Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023. Both sides frequently accuse each other of violations, keeping the truce precarious. The plan involves multiple phases: a ceasefire, withdrawal of Israeli forces, establishment of a new administration in Gaza, and eventual reconstruction after the territory's extensive damage.

The initial phase included:

• Withdrawal of Israeli troops on October 10, while retaining control over more than half of Gaza.
• Release of hostages held by Hamas or allied groups, living or deceased.
• Increased delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza.

Most living hostages were freed by October 13, although one body remains in Gaza. Israel insists on the return of this final remains before commencing the second phase, mediated by the US, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. Egypt plans to host a Gaza reconstruction conference focusing on humanitarian needs, though no date has been confirmed. Experts note that stagnation is not unexpected, as a previous truce collapsed in March before its second phase began.

Challenges Slowing Progress

Much of the delay stems from ambiguities in the Trump plan. Michael Milshtein, a researcher at Tel Aviv University, suggests that Israel has not fully defined what the post-war stage should entail. The UN Security Council resolution supporting the plan allows for the creation of a transitional governing body, the "Board of Peace," potentially chaired by Trump, and an international force to secure borders and demilitarize Gaza, but does not set deadlines.

Practical questions remain contested. Israel seeks Hamas disarmament, while Hamas is open only to partial disarmament within a political process. Some members of Netanyahu's right-wing government oppose the plan, though analysts advise caution in interpreting these statements as definitive policy shifts.

Political Dynamics

Trump remains the central figure driving the process. Milshtein observes that Israel has lost leverage compared to two months ago, when Netanyahu made maximalist demands. The choice of international partners for the stabilization force, including Turkey, largely depends on Trump's decisions. Palestinian groups, under Egypt's guidance, are forming a technocratic committee of Gaza-based officials to manage civil administration, composed of individuals acceptable to Israel but independent of Hamas or Fatah.

Outlook

The immediate priority is sustaining the ceasefire. Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group emphasizes that unresolved issues mean the overall process is still incomplete. The Trump administration's persistence offers some cautious optimism, reinforced by multiple US visits to Netanyahu. However, Abusada notes that uncertainty remains, partly because Hamas's intentions are not fully transparent.

Author: Jackson Miller