The Oscars' Future: How Netflix/Warner Bros Impact the Awards Race Now and Beyond, and Deadline's Winner of the Week- Season Insights

This week marked a surge of activity across the awards circuit, signaling the growing momentum toward the Oscars. Starting with the Gotham Awards, followed by announcements from the New York Film Critics, National Board of Review, AFI Awards, Independent Spirit nominees, and the Critics Choice Awards nominations released this morning, the competition is heating up. The LA Film Critics will weigh in on Sunday, followed by the Golden Globe nominations early Monday, keeping the awards season in full swing.

Amidst this flurry, the buzz centers on the pending Netflix/Warner Bros merger. Its potential impact on the industry is substantial, and it raises a pressing question: what could this mean for the Oscars? This concern is especially relevant given the recent lists of top films by AFI and Critics Choice, both of which identified ten Best Picture contenders, with nine overlapping selections. The only difference was a technicality: Critics Choices Sentimental Value was not eligible for AFIs list.

More strikingly, Netflixs films Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, and Train Dreams, alongside Warner Bros Sinners and One Battle After Another, accounted for half of all Best Picture selections across these groups. At Critics Choice, Warner led with 36 nominations, Netflix followed with 27, and with Apples F1 adding another seven under Warners distribution, the combined total reached 43. In television, Netflixs 31 nominations plus HBO Maxs 27 brought their collective tally to 58, mirroring their annual Emmy rivalry.

Imagine if the merger were already in place this year: Netflix could assert dominance in the awards race. Disneys six nominations pale in comparison, even with the addition of 20th Century and Searchlight properties. Paramount, with just three nominations, likely saw the strategic value in a Warner acquisition, especially given the potential influence on Oscars perception.

Netflixs history is impressive, with ten Best Picture nominations in seven years and likely three more this season. Combined with Warners strong contenders, the probability of winning the top Oscar award would be significantly higher. Netflixs Hollywood offices proudly display awards including Emmys and Oscars, reflecting the companys investment in recognition and prestige. The expectation is clear: Netflix and Warner Bros would be front-runners for the 98th Academy Awards.

The only potential obstacle would be if voters used their Oscar ballots to protest the merger, punishing either studio for corporate moves rather than evaluating the films themselves. Such a scenario would be unfair to the filmmakers, whose work deserves to stand on its own merit.

Netflixs recent holiday celebration at the Living Room in Hollywood reflected optimism and festive cheer rather than negotiation strategy. Ted Sarandos mingled with the animation team after K Pop: Demon Hunters won Best Animated Feature from NYFCC, while actors like Jacob Elordi, Joel Edgerton, and Adam Sandler networkedeach ultimately securing nominations at Critics Choice.

Winner of the Week: Paul Thomas Andersons One Battle After Another

This weeks standout in the awards season is undoubtedly One Battle After Another. Regardless of the awarding body, the film consistently emerged as Best Picture. Its dominance in early voting is evident across Gothams, National Board of Review, New York Critics, AFI, and Critics Choice, with Critics Choice nominating it 14 times.

The Gotham Awards, despite leaning toward smaller indie films, awarded their top prize to this high-budget production. The National Board of Review gave it five awards, reflecting its influence despite an inconsistent past track record. New York Critics similarly acknowledged its excellence, spreading recognition but ultimately affirming it as Best Picture. The AFI and Critics Choice selections further cemented its position.

Since its Academy screening in September at the Goldwyn Theatre, where it received a standing ovation, One Battle After Another has been positioned as a front-runner. However, history reminds us that surprises are possible, as with last years Critics Choice and DGA/PGA-winning indie Anora. The expanded international Academy membership ensures the Oscars remain unpredictable, keeping the race dynamic and compelling.

Author: Sophia Brooks