Honduras election: What is the reason behind Trump's threat to stop aid?

The National Electoral Council (CNE) of Honduras urged citizens to remain patient on Tuesday as officials began a manual verification of votes in one of the tightest presidential elections in over ten years. The process has been delayed due to technical issues with the results website.

As of the latest update from the November 30 election, right-wing candidate Nasry Asfura holds a slim lead, though the race is effectively a technical tie, and no official winner has been declared. US President Donald Trump has publicly endorsed Asfura and warned that American aid to Honduras could be cut if his favored candidate does not prevail.

Main Candidates and Their Platforms

Nasry Asfura, 67, of the right-wing National Party, campaigns on economic stability, attracting foreign investment, and a tougher security stance. Trump has endorsed him as a key ally of freedom in Honduras.

Salvador Nasralla, 72, representing the Liberal Party, positions himself as a centrist reformer focusing on anti-corruption measures and restoring the rule of law.

Rixi Moncada, 60, from the left-wing Liberty and Refoundation party, seeks to continue President Xiomara Castros leftist policies. She promotes expanding credit, boosting national production, and reforming the judiciary to fight corruption.

Trumps Involvement

Trump has warned that there will be serious consequences if election officials manipulate results. He has threatened to suspend US aid if Asfura does not win, without specifying which funds would be affected. The US provides Honduras, a nation of about 11 million people, with significant economic, development, and security assistance each year.

Trump has also shown support for former President Juan Orlando Hernandez of the National Party by pardoning his US drug conviction and releasing him from a 45-year sentence in West Virginia, citing unfair treatment.

US Aid to Honduras

In 2024, the US provided nearly $193.5 million in aid, mainly through USAID and programs supporting small businesses, governance, agriculture, education, and health. Around $10 million went directly to the Honduran government. Security cooperation is another key component, including police training, anti-drug operations, and youth programs. Experts warn that sudden aid cuts could disrupt critical government and NGO operations.

Potential Impact of Aid Cut

Honduras, one of the regions poorest nations and a major source of migration to the US, relies heavily on foreign assistance. Abrupt reductions in aid could exacerbate insecurity, weaken public services, and increase migration. Nearly 30,000 Hondurans have been deported from the US since January, affecting a country where remittances represent about 25% of GDP.

Trumps Broader Regional Influence

Observers say Trumps actions in Honduras reflect a pattern of interference in Latin America. In Venezuela, he has pushed for regime change, including military strikes on boats accused of drug trafficking. In Brazil, he questioned the legitimacy of legal actions against former President Jair Bolsonaro. Trump has criticized Mexicos handling of drug trafficking and expressed strong support for Argentinas right-wing President Javier Milei, threatening to alter US support if socialist candidates win.

Author: Sophia Brooks