If the Constitution remains unchanged and no extraordinary political events occur, Donald Trump will leave the presidency of the United States at noon on January 20, 2029. Nearly three years ahead of the next presidential race, politicians, analysts, commentators, and prediction markets are already speculating about who will become the nations next leader. Yet a far more consequential question looms: How will that leader govern?
Throughout both campaigns and his time in office, Trump has repeatedly pushed aside long-standing political norms. His refusal in 2016 to release his tax returns marked the start of a broader pattern the politicization of the Justice Department, financial entanglements abroad, challenges to election integrity, public criticism of military and intelligence professionals, dismissal of inspectors general, and a volume of false claims without precedent in modern presidential history.
Should a Republican successor take office whether it be Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, or even Donald Trump Jr. it is likely that this disregard for tradition would persist. The logic would be straightforward: Trumps approach brought political success, making it a model to emulate. Policy priorities might differ, but the method of governing would probably remain unchanged.
If a Democrat wins the presidency, the challenge becomes more complex. They would need to decide whether to expend crucial time and political leverage repairing institutional damage. Such efforts could require codifying practices once upheld by custom, including mandatory tax return disclosure, protections for inspectors general and the Federal Reserve, and strict ethics rules for both the president and Supreme Court justices.
Even a sweeping reform package reminiscent of the post-Watergate era might not fully restore pre-Trump standards. His presidency revealed how much executive power operates beyond the reach of legislation. From dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development and mass layoffs under the Department of Government Efficiency, to ignoring bans such as the one targeting TikTok, and ordering military actions with scant justification, Trump showed how easily a determined president can bypass congressional intent.
At home and abroad, trust has also eroded. Career civil servants the experts who generate data essential for public and private decision-making have been dismissed, and their agencies deprived of resources. Restoring credibility to institutions like the Bureau of Labor Statistics will take years, and it is uncertain whether their reputation for accuracy and neutrality can ever fully rebound. Allies overseas, once confident in Americas reliability, may remain wary. Even if they trust a Democratic successor, they cannot be certain about the president who comes next.
Trumps legacy has therefore weakened not only his own administration but also those that follow. Rebuilding confidence in the federal government will be among the next presidents most urgent responsibilities. Yet this task is complicated: even well-intentioned leaders chafe under constitutional limits and may be tempted to retain elements of Trumps expansive use of presidential power.
Despite these pressures, the next president must prioritize integrity in governance, the restoration of the rule of law, and the revival of democratic norms that long supported American stability. Failing to do so risks deepening the nations institutional decline.
Richard S. Grossman is the Andrews Professor of Economics at Wesleyan University and a Visiting Scholar at the Institute for Quantitative Social Science at Harvard. He is the author of WRONG: Nine Economic Policy Disasters and What We Can Learn from Them.