Pakistan's military gains unprecedented power with new legal protections

Over the past year, extensive legal reforms and regional conflicts have strengthened the Pakistani military's dominance, reducing the influence of civilian authorities while providing unprecedented legal protections to the army chief, analysts report. Recognized as the country's most powerful institution, the military has ruled Pakistan for nearly half of its history through a series of coups since 1947. One former military leader, General Pervez Musharraf, was convicted of treason after nearly ten years in power, which began with a 1999 coup, but experts suggest a similar outcome is increasingly unlikely today.

Constitutional amendments passed in November have granted sweeping authority to top officials, including current army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, who is already regarded as Pakistan's most influential figure. Following the May conflict with India, Munir's promotion to Field Marshal also provided him with lifetime immunity from prosecution. "Lifetime immunity means that if Asim Munir were to impose martial law tomorrow, he could not be tried for treason," defense analyst Ayesha Siddiqa explained. "So theoretically, a coup is possible."

Legal scholar Osama Malik in Islamabad emphasized that the constitutional changes mark a departure from past precedents: "This time, the constitution is being altered under a civilian government rather than during martial law."

Following the May clash with India, which Munir claims as a victory, and ongoing tensions with Afghanistan, public criticism of the military has declined. Despite opposition parties voicing concern over Munir's new powers and immunity, protests have been minimal, and social media outrage was short-lived. The military has not publicly commented on the amendments, and neither government officials nor the army responded to requests for statements.

No prime minister in Pakistan has ever completed a full five-year term, and civilian administrations have consistently acknowledged the military's role in governance. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif described the current arrangement as a "hybrid model," with major decisions influenced by both civilian and military leaders. "It is by consensus, whatever is taking place," he stated, while denying that the army chief holds more power than elected officials.

Even during civilian rule, the army chief is widely seen as the country's true power broker, making Munir's expanded authority particularly significant amid heightened regional tensions. Previously, Munir headed Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence but was removed in 2019 after eight months under then-Prime Minister Imran Khan, for reasons that remain undisclosed. Khan was later ousted in 2022 by a no-confidence vote, which analysts attribute to his fallout with the military. His successor, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, appointed Munir as army chief.

The military has long denied involvement in elections or political affairs. Khan, now imprisoned on corruption charges he rejects, and his supporters claim the army facilitated a rival coalition government while enacting two constitutional amendments to strengthen oversight of courts and judges. Protests by Khan's supporters in 2023 escalated into nationwide demonstrations and a violent march on the capital, reflecting widespread frustration.

Zulfikar Bukhari, spokesperson for Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, stated: "Everything being done in Pakistan, from constitutional amendments to new parallel forces, is driven by fear of Imran Khan and his popularity." The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan criticized the constitutional changes, saying they "further weaken essential checks and balances at a time when public trust in state institutions is fragile."

The amendments have elevated Munir to the position of 'Chief of Defence Forces,' expanding his authority to oversee the air force and navy. Originally scheduled to retire in 2027, he can now remain in office until 2030, potentially overseeing the next elections, according to Siddiqa. Munir has also enhanced his international profile, including two official visits to the United States, where former President Donald Trump referred to him as "his favourite field marshal." In official photographs, Munir appears alongside Sharif and Trump in a suit and tie, drawing attention given that past army chiefs traditionally wore uniforms during such visits.

Analysis: The Growing Power of Pakistan's Military and Its Implications

The recent legal reforms in Pakistan have cemented the military's grip on power, with the army chief now wielding unprecedented authority. These constitutional amendments, passed in November, have significantly empowered top military officials, particularly the current army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. His promotion to Field Marshal, along with the subsequent lifetime immunity from prosecution, has raised concerns about the potential for unchecked military rule. Munir's ability to impose martial law without fear of legal consequences makes a coup, while unlikely in the immediate future, more plausible than ever.

What sets this moment apart from previous constitutional changes is the fact that these amendments were passed under a civilian government, rather than during a period of military rule. This marks a significant departure from Pakistan's historical pattern of military interventions, but the end result has been the same: the army has effectively secured a more prominent role in governance. Although the civilian government continues to play a role in decision-making, the reality is that Pakistan's military remains the primary power broker.

The lack of significant public resistance to these changes also speaks volumes. While there have been protests from opposition parties and civil society groups, they have been fleeting and largely ineffective. The military's power, particularly in the context of the ongoing tensions with India and Afghanistan, seems almost unassailable. Public trust in the state institutions has waned, but there is little to no sign of the civilian government successfully curbing the military's influence.

Looking forward, Munir's extended tenure until 2030, coupled with his increasing international profile, suggests that the military will continue to shape Pakistan's future. The strategic implications of this shift cannot be overstated, as Pakistan's internal and regional policies will be largely dictated by military considerations. Given the current trajectory, it seems that Pakistan is on course for a prolonged period of military dominance, with little hope for a return to civilian-led governance in the near term.

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• New legal armour provides unprecedented power for Pakistan's military