With lead shifting in tight Honduran election, will Trump be unsuccessful in influencing the outcome?

With over two-thirds of the votes counted in the Honduran presidential election, the lead has switched. Former Vice President Salvador Nasralla currently holds a narrow but notable advantage over Nasry Asfura, the conservative ex-mayor of Tegucigalpa. Despite this, Asfuras National Party continues to tell the press that they expect to secure a victory.

In Washington, former President Donald Trump has openly supported Asfura, attempting to sway the election in his favor. Actions attributed to Trumpranging from hints of withholding U.S. aid to unverified claims of electoral fraudhave led many in Honduras to view the U.S. influence as intrusive. Honduran political analyst Josue Murillo likens it to Cold War-era interference, stating, No government should come here and treat us as a banana republic. Donald Trump telling us who to elect violates our national autonomy and affects our elections.

Meanwhile, one figure from the National Party is already celebrating. On Monday, former President Juan Orlando Hernandez was released from a Virginia prison after serving just one year of a 45-year sentence on drug trafficking and weapons charges. His release followed Trump urging Honduran voters to back Asfura. Hernandez had been convicted in New York last year for running a drug operation that shipped over 400 tonnes of cocaine to the U.S., and his presidency was marred by allegations of human rights abuses.

Hernandezs arrest in 2022 was seen by many Hondurans as a rare moment of accountability in a country often marked by impunity for political elites. Trump, however, claimed Hernandez had been unjustly treated, stating on Air Force One that the people of Honduras really thought he was set up and it was a terrible thing.

Journalists in Honduras who have documented Hernandezs risebeginning with the 2009 coup to his eventual extraditionstruggle to reconcile this view with the general public perception of him as widely unpopular. Nevertheless, Hernandez retains a loyal base, particularly within the National Party, with his wife Ana Garcia Carias vocal in defending him and celebrating his release as like a dream come true. She described a phone call connecting Hernandez with family members as a moment of joy and prayer.

As for the former presidents potential return to Honduras, Garcia Carias emphasized that it will depend on security guarantees rather than election outcomes. She warned that previous government rhetoric had cultivated hostility toward Hernandez, posing dangers for an ex-leader returning home. She claimed Hernandez had been targeted by lawfare, a deep state, and a politically motivated campaign by the Biden administration, despite much of the case being initiated under Trumps first term.

Garcia Carias also acknowledged the role of conservative U.S. figures Roger Stone and Matt Gaetz in facilitating her husbands pardon. She recounted how Stone personally delivered a letter from Hernandez requesting a pardon directly to Trump.

As the Honduran vote count continues into the night, attention remains on whether Nasralla will maintain his lead or if Asfura will secure the presidencypotentially providing Trump with a new ally just as he facilitated the release of an old one.

Author: Sophia Brooks