Notre Dame's chances of making the College Football Playoff at risk after decrease in rankings

Notre Dames path to the College Football Playoff has suddenly become precarious following a recent drop in the rankings. After weeks of the selection committee appearing to favor the Irish, suggesting a 10-2 record would secure them a spot in the 12-team field, the situation is now tense as the final weekend approaches.

On Tuesday night, during the penultimate ranking show on ESPN, Alabama moved up to No. 9 while Notre Dame slipped to No. 10. This shift is significant because the ACC and American Conference champions are unlikely to finish in the top 12, meaning the final at-large berth will go to the team ranked No. 10.

The concern for Notre Dame centers on the Big 12 championship game between Texas Tech and BYU. Texas Tech, ranked No. 4, is likely to secure a playoff berth regardless of the outcome. BYU, at No. 11, would claim an automatic bid with a win, potentially bumping Notre Dame out of playoff contention.

Even if Texas Tech wins as anticipated (they defeated BYU 29-7 in their first matchup), the rankings could still leave Notre Dame competing directly with Miami for the final playoff slot. The committee has so far avoided a direct comparison between the two teams because Notre Dame has consistently been ranked higher. However, a final decision might rely heavily on Miamis 27-24 victory over Notre Dame in Week 1.

The head-to-head is one data point the committee will use, said CFP selection committee chairman Hunter Yurachek. Its easier to apply when the teams are adjacent in the rankings rather than separated by multiple spots, as has been the case.

Notre Dame fans and coach Marcus Freeman argue the teams close early losses a one-point road loss to Miami and a 41-40 home loss to Texas A&M should not disqualify them from a playoff spot. Yet, the teams schedule lacked enough marquee victories to strengthen their rsum, leaving their playoff fate uncertain.

Notre Dame has won 10 straight games by an average margin of 29.7 points, but many of these victories came against teams with losing records, such as Purdue, Arkansas, Boston College, Syracuse, Stanford, and NC State. Their only notable wins were against USC (No. 16), Navy (9-2), Pittsburgh (8-4), and Boise State (8-4).

The committee now faces a potential dilemma: choosing between the Irish, consistently rated highly throughout the season, and Miami, the team that defeated them head-to-head. Some observers suggest the recent swap between Alabama and Notre Dame in the rankings may have set up this scenario, providing a buffer for Alabama in the SEC Championship while forcing a direct comparison between Notre Dame and Miami.

Historically, the CFP committee leans on observable results rather than assumptions, which suggests Miami could have the advantage in a head-to-head tiebreaker. This approach has been consistent across other decisions, such as ranking Ole Miss despite uncertainties following Lane Kiffins departure.

Ultimately, Notre Dames security in the playoff field has vanished. Their position now depends heavily on the outcome of the Big 12 Championship, which could either eliminate them outright or force a direct comparison with Miami for the final at-large spot. Sunday promises high-stakes drama that could determine the fate of both programs in the College Football Playoff.

Author: Sophia Brooks