Unleashing ‘Pandora’s box’: The consequences of a US attack on Venezuela

As US naval operations in the Caribbean ramp up and tensions rise, the possibility of an American assault on Venezuela seems increasingly plausible. Since early September, the US claims to have targeted at least 21 Venezuelan vessels involved in drug trafficking across the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, resulting in at least 87 fatalities. The Trump administration frames these actions as necessary to protect US national security, although evidence linking Venezuela to major drug flows into the US remains unclear.

US President Donald Trump has issued mixed statements about the potential for a ground operation in Venezuela, neither confirming nor fully ruling it out, while authorizing CIA activities within the country. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro argues that the true aim of the US is regime change and vows to resist any attempt to remove him from power.

Potential US Military Approaches

Analysts suggest the US could employ various strategies, primarily relying on air and naval power rather than ground troops. Recent deployments in the Caribbean include substantial air and naval forces, such as the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier, positioning the US for potential air and missile strikes. Long-range missiles are expected to be the initial approach due to Venezuela's relatively strong air defenses.

Targeting infrastructure allegedly linked to criminal organizations may be easier to justify internationally and could achieve rapid results. Experts largely rule out a full-scale invasion, citing insufficient US ground forces in the region and potential domestic opposition, legal hurdles, and historical caution informed by Iraq and Afghanistan.

Impact on Venezuela

While some US policymakers hope a strike might prompt political change, analysts warn it could destabilize Venezuela further. Armed groups could exploit the conflict, and the opposition is unlikely to benefit due to limited access to military or security resources. A limited strike could even consolidate Maduro's power by fostering nationalistic sentiment and justifying crackdowns on dissent.

Venezuelan officials have publicly adopted a defiant stance. Maduro emphasizes peace with sovereignty, warning against foreign domination, while Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello dismisses the notion that a bombing would subdue the country.

US Strategy Beyond Military Force

The US may focus on undermining the Venezuelan militarys loyalty to Maduro, offering incentives for non-engagement during potential conflict, similar to tactics used during the 1991 Gulf War. However, purges within Venezuelas military make resistance likely, and marginalizing armed forces could spark localized violence rather than an outright coup.

Venezuelan Public Response

The population has already endured economic collapse, hyperinflation, shortages, sanctions, and displacement. A US strike may intensify insecurity rather than offer relief, with public opinion expected to be varied and influenced by social, regional, and political factors.

International Reactions

Global responses would align with existing alliances. China, a major creditor and economic partner, is likely to offer diplomatic support but limited on-the-ground influence. Russia has closer military ties, providing weapons, training, and intelligence, remaining politically aligned with Maduro. Both nations are expected to support him diplomatically.

Regional Implications

Experts warn that US aggression toward Venezuela could set a precedent for labeling domestic crises in other countries as narco-terrorist threats, potentially justifying military intervention across Latin America. This approach risks weakening international legal constraints and prioritizing militarized solutions over social, economic, and public health measures in addressing regional challenges.

Author: Grace Ellison