Key things to look out for in Tennessee tonight: Insights from the Politics Desk

Welcome to the digital edition of From the Politics Desk, the newsletter featuring the latest coverage and insights from NBC News political reporters across the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail. In todays issue, Steve Kornacki previews tonights special House race in Tennessee, while Sahil Kapur examines dwindling hopes in Congress for a deal before health insurance premiums surge. You can subscribe to receive the newsletter each weekday.

This fall has brought troubling indicators for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party: declining approval ratings, a widening Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot, and decisive Democratic victories in the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. Tonights special election in Tennessees 7th Congressional District could add to those challenges.

Although Republican Matt Van Epps is still seen as the frontrunner, the contest appears far tighter than usual for the GOP. And if the single independent poll conducted in the district is accurate, Democrat Aftyn Behn could potentially pull off an upset. The district which spans parts of Nashville, all of Clarksville, and large stretches of suburban and rural central Tennessee has long been a Republican stronghold. Trump won the area by 22 points in 2024 and by 15 points in 2020.

But Democrats have been outperforming expectations in special elections throughout the year, helped by high turnout among their energized voters and by some swing voters shifting away from Trump after supporting him last year. In the four special House elections held earlier in 2025, Democrats improved their margins by 16 to 22 points compared to Trumps 2024 numbers. A similar showing in Tennessees 7th District would pull the race into single digits and increase Republican concerns.

Such an outcome would not only signal another Democratic overperformance but also resemble what occurred ahead of the 2018 midterms during Trumps first term. Back then, Trumps approval numbers were similarly weak, and Democrats made gains in traditionally red districts including a major 2018 special election win in a Pennsylvania district Trump had carried by 23 points in 2016. That victory foreshadowed the Democratic wave later that year, when the party picked up 40 House seats.

Still, Republicans could find encouraging signs tonight. A decisive Van Epps victory for instance, a margin in the double digits would suggest the GOP succeeded in turning out its base and highlighting Behns far-left policy positions and past controversial statements. Despite the GOPs rough political climate this fall, Democrats continue to struggle with their own party-wide image, and Republican strategists plan to tie Democratic candidates in 2026 to the partys most outspoken progressive figures. A strong result tonight could bolster that strategy.

Steve Kornacki will go live at 7:45 p.m. ET to break down the results as they come in. Coverage will be available on NBC News website, mobile app and YouTube channel until a race projection is announced. Additional updates can be found on the live blog.

Congressional hopes dim for a health care agreement before Januarys premium hikes

Congress has less than a month to act before millions of Americans face sharp increases in health insurance premiums, but lawmakers from both parties increasingly doubt a deal will materialize. Im not optimistic that its going to happen, said Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich. Well keep working at it, but Im not feeling good about it right now. Things just arent coming together the way I hoped.

Peters is part of a bipartisan group of senators who sought a health care compromise after eight Democrats joined Republicans to reopen the government last month. That shutdown the longest ever had been triggered by Democrats attempting to secure additional Affordable Care Act funding.

The agreement to end the shutdown came after Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., promised Democrats a vote next week on a health care bill of their choosing a pledge he repeated on Tuesday. But any plan would require 60 votes, and Republicans still lack consensus on their own proposal. I havent yet seen what Democrats are putting forward. I dont think were near a 60-vote deal, Thune told NBC News.

The main point of contention is roughly $35 billion in ACA subsidies established in 2021 during the Covid pandemic. These funds kept premiums lower by capping benchmark plans at 8.5% of household income. Democrats favor simply extending the expiring subsidies. Republicans, who control both chambers, oppose a clean extension but have yet to offer an alternative, and many GOP lawmakers want the subsidies to lapse entirely.

The remainder of the political news cycle includes developments involving Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, ongoing scrutiny of U.S. operations in the Caribbean, the publisher of Franklin the Turtle objecting to political use of the character, high-level U.S.-Russia discussions involving presidential envoys, and new 2026 election announcements across several states. Additional stories cover Trumps recent comments about Rep. Ilhan Omar, major philanthropic commitments from Michael and Susan Dell to expand Trump Accounts for children, and Trumps pledge to overhaul Dulles International Airport. Pop star Sabrina Carpenter also criticized a White House video that used her music in a controversial immigration-related clip.

Todays newsletter was prepared by Adam Wollner. Feedback can be sent to politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com. Readers are encouraged to share the newsletter, and new subscribers can sign up through the provided link.