New survey: Unexpected frontrunner emerges in the competition to succeed Gavin Newsom

The contest to become Californias next governor remains highly competitive, with roughly one-third of voters still undecided, according to a recent survey. A poll from Emerson College, published Thursday, shows Republican Chad Bianco, a county sheriff, taking the lead in the race to succeed term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom (D), who has become one of the most vocal figures in the Democratic Party in recent months.

Bianco has garnered 13% of voter support, narrowly ahead of Republican commentator Steve Hilton, who has 12%. Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell, who launched his campaign just last month, also holds 12% backing. Former Representative Katie Porter (D-Calif.) comes in at 11%, while 31% of respondents have not yet decided on their preferred candidate.

The primary election in California, scheduled for next June, is nonpartisan. This means the two candidates with the highest vote counts, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the general election in November.

Voters identified the leading issues facing the state as the economy (34%), housing costs (25%), immigration (10%), threats to democratic processes (10%), and health care (9%). Regarding immigration, 60% oppose mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, while 40% view stricter enforcement positively.

Governor Newsom, ineligible for reelection after two consecutive terms, holds a 47% approval rating, higher than recent figures for former President Trump. Thirty-nine percent disapprove of his performance, while 52% of voters view him favorably and 38% unfavorably. Opinions are split on whether Newsoms endorsement would affect their vote: 33% say it would, 33% say it would reduce support for the endorsed candidate, and 35% report it would have no impact.

Looking toward the 2028 presidential primary, Newsom leads among Democratic voters in California with 36%, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 16%, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13%, and former Vice President Kamala Harris at 9%. Fifteen percent prefer other candidates. On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance leads with 52%, ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 11%, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 10%, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 6%. Nine percent would select a different candidate.

The survey polled 1,000 registered California voters on December 1-2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Analysis: California's Governor Race and Voter Preferences

The race to become California's next governor remains highly competitive, with a significant portion of voters still undecided. According to the latest Emerson College survey, approximately 31% of respondents have yet to choose a candidate, highlighting the fluidity of the contest. Republican Chad Bianco, a county sheriff, currently leads the field with 13% of voter support, just slightly ahead of Republican commentator Steve Hilton and Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell, both holding 12%. Former Representative Katie Porter follows with 11%, indicating a tight race among the top contenders.

Notably, the primary election, scheduled for June, will be nonpartisan. This means the two candidates with the highest vote counts will advance to the general election, irrespective of their party affiliation. As a result, voter opinions will heavily influence the final candidates, making the undecided voter bloc crucial in determining the outcome.

The survey also sheds light on key issues driving voter concerns, with the economy (34%) and housing costs (25%) topping the list. Immigration, while a major topic, is less of a focal point, with 60% of voters opposing mass deportations. This suggests that while immigration remains a significant issue, California voters may favor more measured approaches to the topic.

Governor Gavin Newsom's approval rating stands at 47%, which is relatively high compared to former President Trump's approval ratings, indicating that Newsom maintains solid support as he prepares to exit office. His endorsement in the governor's race could still be impactful, with 33% of voters saying it would influence their decision. However, opinions on the endorsement's effect are split, with some saying it would reduce support for a candidate, while others believe it would not matter at all.

Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential race, Newsom leads among Democratic voters in California, with 36%, but faces strong competition from figures like Pete Buttigieg and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance holds a commanding lead at 52%, indicating a potentially clear path for him in the party's nomination process. However, 9% of Republicans are still undecided, suggesting that there could be room for new contenders to emerge.

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• New poll: Surprise leader emerges in the race to replace Gavin Newsom