Republicans narrowly escaped a nightmare in Tennessee. Their electoral outlook remains concerning.

Republicans narrowly avoided a major setback on Tuesday by securing victory in a special election within a strongly Republican Tennessee congressional district. However, the close marginsingle digitsreflects a broader trend of concerning results for President Donald Trumps party as the 2026 midterms approach.

Republican Representative-elect Matt Van Epps led Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly nine points with 95% of votes tallied. This district had previously supported Trump by 22 points and former GOP Representative Mark Green by over 21 points last year. Behns performance thus exceeded the Democratic presidential margin from 2024 by approximately 13 points and their House margin by about 12 points.

This shift, while notable, is actually smaller than in other special House elections this year. Prior to Tuesday, Democrats had outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris 2024 margins by an average of 18 points and their House margins by 16 points across four special congressional elections in Arizona, Florida, and Virginia.

In total, Democrats have now exceeded expectations by double digits in every 2025 special House election. These contests also represent five of their 15 largest over-performances relative to the previous presidential race since 2017, spanning more than three dozen special elections over that period.

Special elections are an imperfect predictor of broader electoral outcomes due to typically low turnout, which amplifies the impact of motivated voters and can exaggerate swings. Turnout in Tuesdays race approached levels seen in the 2022 midterms for this district, potentially explaining why Behns over-performance was below the average for 2025 special elections.

While Democrats had little chance of flipping this heavily Republican seat even in a strong 2026 scenario, other indicators this year have favored Democrats. State legislative special elections have also swung more strongly toward Democrats than any seen during the Trump era.

Earlier in the year, Democrats achieved a double-digit over-performance in a high-profile Wisconsin Supreme Court race in April. Additionally, last months Election Day brought them significant victories, including double-digit wins in the New Jersey and Virginia governors races and the first non-federal statewide offices in Georgia in nearly 20 years. Democrats also passed a California redistricting ballot measure despite initial skepticism.

The Tennessee race has generated attention and analysis. One question for Democrats is whether Behns relatively liberal positionssuch as past criticism of Nashville, support for defunding the police, and labeling herself a very radical personlimited her ability to fully capitalize on the favorable environment.

Overall, as 2025 draws to a close, Democrats appear to be performing better than they did in 2017. That years midterms were followed by a wave election in 2018, when Democrats reclaimed the House. While an assured victory in 2026 is far from guaranteed, historical patterns suggest the presidents party often loses seats in midterms, and Trump currently faces low approval within his own support base. Tuesdays results reinforce this broader trend, even if a dramatic upset was avoided.

Author: Sophia Brooks