Intense storm approaching, bringing heavy snow to areas north of NYC

NEW YORK A highly energized and moisture-rich storm system is forecasted to move into the Tri-State region on Tuesday, bringing a complex mix of heavy snow, sleet, and rain. The system will draw energy from a strong jet stream and pull in lingering cold air from New England, creating conditions for intense snowfall, even in areas where surface temperatures are marginal.

While New York City is likely to see limited accumulation due to the storm tracking slightly north, higher-elevation communities across New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut could experience plowable snow totals. This storm does not represent a classic snowstorm dominated by trapped cold air. Its impact will depend on:

• The timing of the storms arrival Tuesday morning
• The efficiency of cold air moving down from New England
• The duration that snow remains before mixing with rain

A faster storm arrival increases the chance for heavier snow, while a slower one allows warmer air to mix in sooner. Even where precipitation begins as wet snow or sleet, warmer surface layers will limit accumulation in NYC and surrounding coastal zones, producing mainly rain instead. Snowfall will primarily occur north and west of the city.

Storm Timeline

• Predawn Late Tuesday Afternoon: Precipitation spreads across the region, beginning before sunrise.
• 4 a.m. 8 a.m.: Initial snow and sleet inland; rain along coastal areas.
• 8 a.m. 1 p.m.: Heaviest precipitation with widespread mixing; prominent snow bands form in northern and western locations.
• 1 p.m. 5 p.m.: Storm moves out; colder air wraps in; some areas may revert to wet snow.
• After 5 p.m.: Conditions improve for evening travel.

Regional Impacts

New York City, Long Island, Central New Jersey

These areas remain within the warm sector of the storm, limiting snow accumulation. Surface and low-level air temperatures will prevent significant snow, with rain totals expected around 12 inches, highest toward eastern Long Island. Urban flooding is possible in poorly drained areas. Winds will strengthen slightly as the storm moves offshore.

Lower Hudson Valley, Interior New Jersey, Southern Westchester, Southern Connecticut

This transitional zone may see slushy snow early Tuesday morning before transitioning to sleet and rain. Elevated locations north of I-95 and the Tappan Zee Bridge could see the highest early totals. Travel conditions in the morning may be slippery, particularly on untreated surfaces.

Northwest New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley north of I-84, Central Connecticut

These regions are expected to receive the heaviest and most persistent snow. Strong lift in the atmosphere could create snowfall rates that overcome marginal surface temperatures, with isolated pockets potentially seeing up to 6 inches above 600 feet. Counties impacted include Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, as well as interior southeastern New York and Connecticut. Snow accumulation may stick to trees and powerlines, causing minor power outages.

Highest Elevations North of I-84

This jackpot zone, covering the highest terrain in the Catskills and interior Connecticut/New York, will remain in the cold sector for much of the storm, allowing for the most efficient snow accumulation. Northern and high-elevation Connecticut communities could see slightly higher totals if the heavy snow band lingers. Storm track variations will influence exact amounts, with a southeast shift increasing totals and a northward shift reducing them.

Author: Sophia Brooks