Analysis: Can Direct Talks Between Lebanon and Israel Alter the Current Situation?

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Dec. 5 This week marked a significant development in the long-standing tension between Lebanon and Israel, as both nations agreed to initiate direct negotiations under U.S. supervision. These talks, the first in decades, aim to reduce hostilities, reinforce the existing cease-fire, and potentially lay the groundwork for a comprehensive peace agreement.

Despite this new initiative, analysts suggest that differing goals and expectations on each side make it likely that the situation established since the November 2024 cease-fire with Israel conducting operations and Hezbollah holding back retaliation will largely persist.

For Lebanon, the negotiations are seen as a critical tool to deter Israeli actions. For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, they represent an opportunity to foster economic cooperation and potential normalization. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, who had previously deemed direct talks the only viable path to stability, appointed former U.S. Ambassador Simon Karam to lead Lebanons military delegation to monitor the truce. Israel sent Uri Resnick, deputy director for foreign policy at the National Security Council, to participate in Wednesdays meeting at the United Nations peacekeeping headquarters in Naqoura, near the Lebanese border.

Aoun emphasized that the new talks focus on halting Israeli attacks on Lebanese territory, ensuring the return of prisoners, and planning withdrawals from occupied zones. They also aim to address disputes along the 75-mile Blue Line, the U.N.-designated boundary established in 2000. However, success hinges heavily on Israel's cooperation, as it has historically resisted Lebanons requests for partial withdrawal from strategic positions in southern Lebanon, the return of displaced residents, and reconstruction of border communities.

Israel continues to operate with near-total freedom in Lebanon, demanding Hezbollahs full disarmament, even after the Lebanese Army removed the groups presence from areas along the border and south of the Litani River. Israel insists that Hezbollah be disarmed nationwide, either by Lebanon or by Israel itself. Without Israeli withdrawal, Lebanons Army cannot fully secure the south or complete nationwide control.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah has reinforced its ranks and secured new funding and rearmament channels. Its leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, rejected the negotiations, asserting that they will not alter Israels stance or military actions.

Lebanese officials hope that direct talks could prevent another large-scale Israeli offensive, amid threats targeting the countrys infrastructure. One official noted that, while escalation has not been fully stopped, diplomacy has prevented a nationwide conflict despite Israels continued attacks.

Israeli statements on economic cooperation have added a new dimension to the discussions. Analysts suggest this may relate to revisiting the 2022 U.S.-mediated maritime border agreement or establishing an economic zone along the southern border, potentially free of Hezbollah influence. Lebanons Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stressed that economic collaboration or normalization depends on achieving a peace deal aligned with the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative.

In the interim, experts suggest that both sides are effectively buying time. Former Lebanese ambassador Riad Tabbarah highlighted that Israels current government seeks to advance its regional agenda while the U.S. aims to manage the situation until a broader solution emerges. Meanwhile, the status quo is expected to continue, with Israel exercising freedom of action and Hezbollah constrained by Israels superior military capabilities.

Author: Chloe Ramirez