Europe considers preparing industry for war without actually being at war

PARIS European governments face a difficult challenge: preparing their defense industries to rapidly produce massive quantities of drones and other military systems in the event of conflict, without creating stockpiles that quickly become outdated.

Speaking at the Forum Innovation Dfense in Paris, Franois Arbault, the European Commissions director for defense industry, said the dilemma remains unresolved. He questioned how Europe can prepare for largescale conflict without accumulating equipment that may never be used. How do we maintain defense readiness when we are not yet at war? he asked.

Despite rising defense budgets across NATO Europe, leaders have avoided adopting President Emmanuel Macrons call for a full war economy following Russias 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Even France has not reoriented its entire economy toward wartime production.

Jrme Cerisier, CEO of the French nightvision company Exosens, noted that Ukraines urgent fight for survival forces rapid innovation that Europeans cannot replicate. Arbault added that Ukraine must constantly adapt, whereas EU nations can only prepare. However, he warned that hoarding drones is pointless, as fastmoving innovation would render them outdated by the time they were needed.

According to Andr LoesekrugPietri, head of the Joint European Disruptive Initiative, the development cycle for Ukrainian drones is just eight to ten weeks, compared to months or years in Western Europe.

Marie Nicod of investment firm Jolt Capital said Europe should focus on maintaining a pool of industrial components that can be assembled into multiple systems when needed, reducing the risks of unused inventory.

Exosens has gradually expanded production capacity for dronecamera systems to stay flexible and reduce investment risk, Cerisier said, adding that preparing for a war economy must begin long before any conflict. Companies need not only steady orders but also visibility into future demand to justify major investments.

Sylvain Rousseau, CEO of Aresia, argued that industries should rehearse accelerated production scenarios to pinpoint bottlenecks. Sometimes, he said, a single outdated machine may be all that blocks a major capacity increase.

The EU unveiled its first defenseindustrial strategy in March 2024, emphasizing defense industrial readiness. Commissioner Thierry Breton later said European industries must move toward a war economy mode, one of the few times the term has appeared at EU level.

Several governments have recently pushed industrial preparedness. Dutch Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans warned that the war in Ukraine has become a clash of industrial capacities. Sweden released a defenseindustry strategy aimed at boosting output, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Europe must win the arms race sparked by Russia.

But Olivier Lecointe of Frances Directorate General for Armament cautioned that comparing Europe to Russia is misleading, since Russia is already at war. He explained that France will not build longterm wartime stockpiles due to expiration risks and uncertain use. Instead, the priority is ensuring industry can ramp up quickly.

Lecointe said scaling production from thousands to hundreds of thousands of units requires renovating factories, acquiring machines, and hiring staff, all of which demand investment. Old machinery still works, he said, but modern tools are needed for high production rates.

For efficient mass production during a highintensity conflict, new systems must be designed with scalability in mind. Lecointe said the DGA is exploring this particularly in the drone domain, including adapting civilian manufacturing lines for rapid military production with minimal tooling changes. Test contracts may follow once budgets allow.

However, adapting civilian production for military use comes with enormous costs, raising the question of who will fund preparation without guaranteed orders. Rousseau noted that while some companies may assume part of the risk, larger scenarios will require state support.

Lecointe added that although automotive suppliers could help scale military manufacturing, the economic models differ sharplycar production runs in the tens of thousands per year, while artillery systems like Caesar cannons are produced in much smaller quantities.

He said the armed forces are increasingly open to testing prototypes more rapidly, similar to Ukraines battlefield evaluations, which contrasts with traditional French procurement cycles. The feedback loop between users and manufacturers must accelerate if Europe hopes to prepare for highintensity warfare.

Author: Sophia Brooks