German parliament to decide on controversial pension legislation on Friday

The German government is heading into a decisive parliamentary session on Friday, where a contentious pension reform package is scheduled for a vote. Uncertainty surrounds whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz's coalition can muster the support needed to pass the legislation.

On Tuesday, the Bundestag administration confirmed that the vote will proceed as planned. The outcome is expected to be extremely close, prompting heavily pregnant Construction Minister Verena Hubertz to participate in the vote despite starting maternity leave earlier this week, according to a spokesperson.

A faction of 18 younger conservative lawmakers from Merz's party has expressed opposition to the reforms, citing concerns about escalating costs. The package proposes changes to statutory pensions along with the introduction of an "active pension" scheme set to begin in early 2026.

Although senior figures within Merz's bloc have pressed for unity, the conservative youth wing stopped short of a coordinated rebellion on Monday, allowing each member to vote according to personal judgment. This situation sets up a high-stakes scenario on Friday, with the government holding a narrow majority in the 630-seat Bundestag.

Chancellor Merz's coalition, consisting of the Christian Democrats (CDU), the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), controls 328 seats. If all members are present, just 13 dissenting conservatives siding with the opposition could defeat the bill, potentially threatening the coalition's stability.

Conservative Leadership Stays Confident

During a trial vote within the CDU/CSU parliamentary group on Tuesday, around 15 lawmakers opposed the reforms, with some reports indicating up to 20 votes against plus a few abstentions. Despite this, party leadership remains confident that the package will pass on Friday.

Lawmakers were given until Wednesday at noon to inform party leaders if they intended to vote against the bill or abstain. CDU/CSU leaders believe many who opposed the trial vote did so to signal dissatisfaction, and several indicated they may vote differently in the official session.

Author: Sophia Brooks