Nature retracts German study on worldwide expenses of climate change

A major 2024 investigation into the worldwide economic impact of climate change has been withdrawn from the Nature journal following concerns over flawed data. The study, titled "The Economic Commitment of Climate Change," was first published on April 17, 2024, by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

The authors maintain that the studys main conclusions remain valid, emphasizing that the projected economic losses due to climate change by 2050 are expected to significantly exceed the costs of adaptation strategies.

Over a year after its release, Nature published critiques in August 2025 from Stanford University professor Solomon Hsiang and two other US researchers. They identified errors in the economic data for Uzbekistan, which disproportionately influenced the studys results.

In a retraction note, the researchers stated, "Inaccuracies were noted in the underlying economic data for the period 1995-1999." They confirmed that the discrepancies were too significant to be addressed through a simple correction, prompting the retraction.

The PIK team has updated the research and shared a revised version online. According to this new, yet-to-be-peer-reviewed report, global economic output could decline by 17% by mid-century compared to a scenario without further climate change. Previously, the study had estimated a 19% drop.

The updated analysis also suggests that annual global economic damage from climate change by mid-century would be five times the cost of limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius, slightly lower than the initial estimate of six times.

Author: Sophia Brooks