Opinion - Putin will continue until he is compelled to stop

As many anticipated, Tuesday's meeting at the Kremlin between Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Trumps special envoys ended with Moscow doubling down on its maximalist demands to end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, now in its fourth year. Putin made clear to Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner that post-war NATO troops in Ukraine are unacceptable; Ukraine must relinquish all territory in the Donbas, including defensive positions around Kyiv and the Black Sea port of Odesa; and Ukraine must renounce any future NATO membership. These demands reflect Putins continued strategy of ruthless brinkmanship, seeking to exhaust diplomatic efforts while pursuing his territorial ambitions.

Despite Trumps attempts to broker peace, Putin has shown no willingness to limit Russian casualties to achieve his objectives. On May 8, when Trump proposed a 30-day ceasefire, Russia had already suffered 961,970 casualties. Kyiv accepted the ceasefire; Putin rejected it. By the time of the Alaska meeting in August, an additional 106,070 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded, raising the total to 1,068,040, yet Putin remained undeterred. By October 20, after another 63,030 Russian casualties, he engaged with Trump again but continued to manipulate the peace process, ultimately causing the cancellation of the proposed Budapest summit.

Currently, Russian casualties total 1,176,020, including 42,160 more since the October engagement. Since Trump first proposed the ceasefire, 214,050 additional Russian casualties have occurred, with 355,590 total since the beginning of his second term. Ukrainian civilian casualties have also mounted, with 12,062 reported this year, alongside 8,000 Ukrainian soldier deaths as of August. Overall, Putins campaign has resulted in over 376,000 combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties during the fourth year of the conflict.

Putin continues to signal readiness to sacrifice both Russian and Ukrainian lives to achieve his maximalist goals and has even suggested the possibility of conflict with Europe. This demonstrates that a moral or diplomatic appeal alone cannot compel him to stop; he will only cease when forced militarily on the battlefields of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia is pursuing aggressive operations elsewhere, including in the Middle East and Africa, reinforcing its global strategic ambitions in partnership with China, Iran, and North Korea.

In Syria, Russia retains its naval base at Tartus and the nearby airbase, key logistics points for operations in Africa and the Indian Ocean. Moscow is also pursuing a long-sought naval foothold in Sudan, with a 25-year proposal allowing Russian troops and warships at Port Sudan. These positions would enable Russia to influence shipping lanes, threaten nearby U.S. forces, and expand its reach in the Indian Ocean. Putin is also exploring a naval presence in Tobruk, Libya, following a meeting with warlord Khalifa Haftar, further extending Russias strategic influence in the region.

Within Europe, Russias hybrid warfare has prompted NATO to consider pre-emptive measures against attacks on critical infrastructure, highlighting the broader risks to civilian populations. It is evident that Putin could have limited the scale of bloodshed but has chosen not to. Ending this conflict requires experienced military leadership at the negotiating table. Figures such as David Petraeus or Ben Hodges, fully backed by the U.S. administration, could address both the war in Ukraine and Russias broader campaign against the West.

Author: Olivia Parker