Is a white Christmas in the cards? Manage your expectations.

With the holiday season approaching, snow has already appeared across many regions of the United States this winter. But what are the odds of experiencing a white Christmas this year?

At this stage, meteorologists cannot provide precise predictions about where snow will accumulate enough to meet the criteria for a white Christmas. According to forecasters, a white Christmas requires at least one inch of snow on the ground, regardless of whether it snows on December 25 itself.

As of December 3, roughly 40% of the U.S. was covered in snow following recent storms in the Midwest, New England, and Mid-Atlantic regions. Experts anticipate additional snow and cold Arctic air in the coming days and weeks. While current data offers a general sense of the likelihood of a white Christmas, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) emphasizes that "actual conditions may differ widely each year due to the weather patterns that determine snow accumulation." For a more accurate forecast, check updates closer to Christmas from your local weather service.

States with the Highest Historical Chance of a White Christmas

Historically, states like Minnesota, Maine, upstate New York, and Idaho, as well as certain mountainous areas, have the best odds of seeing a white Christmas. NOAA's analysis of climate data from 1991 to 2020 provides a detailed probability map showing which regions are most likely to have snow on the ground for the holiday.

Major Cities with the Best Odds

Among the 25 most-populated U.S. cities, none has a greater than one-in-three chance of a white Christmas. Denver leads with a 34% probability, followed closely by Chicago at 33.5%. Other cities with comparatively higher chances include Indianapolis, Boston, and Columbus. Beyond the big cities, mountain towns in Colorado, the Rockies, and New England show the strongest likelihood of a snowy holiday. For example, Tahoe City, California, has an 83.4% chance, and Colorado ski towns range from 94% to 99%.

Regions Least Likely to See Snow

The West Coast, Deep South, and Gulf Coast have the lowest probabilities for a white Christmas. Southeastern states and much of the West Coast are particularly unlikely to see snow. Cities such as Miami, Houston, and Los Angeles have essentially zero chance of a snowy holiday according to historical data.

Why Do We Dream of a White Christmas?

The fascination with snowy holidays has deep cultural roots, famously popularized by Charles Dickens, and influenced by colder historical climate periods such as the Little Ice Age.

Snow Probability Map

A national map illustrates the likelihood of at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, based on U.S. Climate Normals from 1991 to 2020. Dark gray areas show less than a 10% chance, while white areas indicate over a 90% probability of a white Christmas.

Author: Jackson Miller