Early December Oscar predictions for the 2026 Academy Awards

The 2026 Oscar season is shaping up with several clear frontrunners, leaving fans to wonder if Januarys nomination announcements will bring any surprises. While it is still early in the awards cycle, with major input from critics' groups, the Screen Actors Guild, and the Golden Globes yet to come, early trends provide some insight into likely contenders.

Current predictions largely align with public expectations due to the obvious frontrunners across many categories. Nevertheless, there are still areas of uncertainty and potential surprises. According to the New York Times Kyle Buchanan, the Best Picture race appears open beyond the five leading films: One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sentimental Value, Hament, and Marty Supreme.

Using resources like The Hollywood Reporters comprehensive Oscar guide curated by Scott Feinberg, we have compiled early projections for the eight major award categories.

Directing Contenders

• Watch for: Wicked: For Good, The Secret Agent, F1, No Other Choice, Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
• First out: Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein)

Acting Predictions: Lead

• Watch for: Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Noah Baumbach (Jay Kelly), Clint Bentley (Train Dreams)
• First out: Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)

Acting Predictions: Supporting

• Watch for: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein)
• First out: Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)

Acting Predictions: Lead Female

• Watch for: Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Sydney Sweeney (Cristy)
• First out: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You)

Acting Predictions: Supporting Female

• Watch for: Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Odessa Azion (Marty Supreme), Regina Hall (One Battle After Another), Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)
• First out: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)

Screenplay & Original Story Highlights

• Sentimental Value Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
• Marty Supreme Josh Safdie & Ronald Bronstein
• Jay Kelly Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer
• Watch for: The Secret Agent, Blue Moon, Is This Thing On?, Sorry, Baby

Best Picture Early Contenders

• One Battle After Another Paul Thomas Anderson
• Train Dreams Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
• Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery Rian Johnson
• Watch for: Wicked: For Good, No Other Choice, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Nouvelle Vague

While we have not taken bold risks with these early predictions, our Best Picture selections beyond the top five remain uncertain. However, Benicio del Toros strong support among New York critics for Supporting Actor could signal another Oscar win for him this March.

Author: Sophia Brooks